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发表于 2010-2-28 01:51:30
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累了,写的有点乱,帮忙看看,谢了
Argument No.045
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
In a wildlife journal, the editorial analyzes the reason that there is a decline in arctic deer. The recent reports say that the global warming trends have melt the ice so that deer could not migrate across the frozen sea.
Therefore, the editorial asserts that it is the reason that causes the number of deer declines. Careful examination of the analysis of the journal, however, reveals several logic flaws that lead the invalidity of the final conclusion.
To begin with, the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization where the author attributes the reason of deer’s death to the global warming. Actually there is no causal relationship between both. Perhaps although the global warming happens and causes some rises in the temperature, it doesn’t have influence on environment of the deer. On the other words, the warming may be not enough such that the ice has melt considerably and deer can still migrate across the frozen sea. In addition, even if the global warming has affected the environment deer live in, there is the other possibility that plants die due to the higher temperature, thus, food is no more available to sustain the population of deer.
Furthermore, maybe the global warming is not the killer that causes the decline in population at all. Even if the ice has melt and the plants has died somewhat, it is still nice for deer’s living. Perhaps other facts such as diseases, earthquake that lead the death of deer. Or polar beer is affected by the warming and transfer to the other continents and become the predator of the Arctic peer. Whatever, without enough evidence provided, the editorial cannot make a conclusion that’s related to the warming.
Finally, the author concludes that the deer is unable to follow their previous migration pattern across the frozen sea. Perhaps the reason is direct caused by the warming instead of indirect ways, that it, the deer are sensitive to the temperature change. Before they are about to migrate, they has died due to the no capability of adapting climate change. Author cannot make this conclusion simply unless some powerful resources are found and provided.
In conclusion, the editorial has not convinced me that the decline in peer’s population is due to the inability of migration. To better estimate the true fact we need more information about the actual situation caused by warming in Canada’s arctic region. In addition, some other biological statistics would be advantageous to help us know whether it’s not due to the internal reason. All in all, the author has to provide clear evidence to support his assertion. |
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