【Big Fish】2月27 Argument45-By Narashy

NarashyUID: 2602795

In this argument, the author concludes that the number of arctic deer is decreasing due to melt ice which prevent deers from migrating for food. To substantiate his/her argument, the author cites two reports on the condition of deer and weather respectively. The argument seems sound at first glance, however, the conclusion rests on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions which render it unconvincing as it stands.

First of all, obviously, the reports from local hunters that the deer populations are declining, are highly suspectable. The author fails to provide specific information such as, the range in which the hunters used to move, the details about the number of deers it used to be and now. It is entirely possible that deers which used to be active in the hunters' area have moved to another places or the observation taken by the hunters is completely wrong. Unless further evidence can be provided, the hunters' words and the conclusion are highly unconvincing.

Secondly, the author fails to provide any evidence that global warming trends do have effect on this area where deers use to live. Is it reported at local institution or just derived from the report of the whole world? Is the weather warm enough to melt the ice? If the local temperature has not rised much, the conclusion is completely unsupported by relying on the assumption that warm weather leads to the melt of ice preventing deers from migrating. Hence, further investigation and analysis should be taken into this issue before making conclusion.
In addition, even if both the assumptions above hold, which is completely unsubstantiated, it does not necessarily follow that the decline in deer populations is due to these reasons. Several other reasons would have lead to the same result. Such as over-hunting by the hunters or the increased number of deer's enemies. However, we can see little sign in the argument that would rule out these cases.

To sum up, the conclusion made by the author is not well-supported. In order to convince me, the author should present more evidence about the two reports on the decline of deer's population and global warming at local area. In addtion, more information on the reasons that would lead to decline of deer should be considered for fairness.