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发表于 2010-3-16 18:45:45
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In this argument, the author concludes that the new store in Plainsville will be profitable based on their previous experience and a report about Plainsville merchants. It seems a rational conclusion, but after a deep analysis, there are some serious logical flaws in this argument.
First of all, the at-all time high sales of athletic shoes and clothing can't represent the local residents are interested in exercising. They may just like such shoes and clothing because they are more comfortable than ordinary ones. We know the running shoes are soft and full of elasticity, so that many people prefer them after work. The author doesn't indicate why the Plainsville residents prefer such shoes and clothing, so we can't judge if they are really interested in exercising.
Secondly, even the local people really like exercising, without sufficient evidences, we can't conclude they like health food and other health-related products. Maybe they only like exercising in the health club, or taking exercise in the nature place, but after that, they eat the common food. Perhaps they only see exercise as a life style, and don't like to pursue the health intentionally.
Thirdly, there are some other factors which will influence the profit of the new store in Plainsville, but they are ignored by the author. Such as the cost of building a new store in Plainsville. Perhaps they will devote too much money in the new store because some potential elements and the investment can’t be paid off in future. Another is the sales net, if there are not integral sales net in Plainsville, so building such a net will cost excess money, which can’t be afforded to Nature’s Way.
Fourthly, the author ignores there may be other stores which are the competitors to Nature’s Way. If they sale the same health food and other health-related food, so we can’t judge that the new store in Plainsville will profit. Further more, the author doesn’t refer that Nature’s Way’s products are more popular in Plainsville than others’. If the local existing stores’ products are popular, now a new store take part in such a competition, without particular advantage we can’t imagine the new store can win the market, even the new store of Nature’s Way will have a deficit in future. As the author doesn’t supply the relevant messages, we can’t make a accurate predict to the new store’s profit prospect.
The last but not the least, the author concludes that there will be a new generation of customers in future, based on such a fact that Plainsville’s students should take part in a program called ‘fitness for life’. It maybe incredible, for albeit they are enforced to join in such a program, they could exercise only, but no one can guarantee that they choose the Nature’s Way’s products. If they purchase other stores’ products or even they don’t buy anything at all, the new store of Nature’s Way can’t profit from these schoolchildren.
All in all, there are not sufficient evidences to support the author’s conclusion. To substantiate it, we should know more relevant messages. They may include whether the local residents in Plainsville prefer exercise, whether they are interested in health food or other health-related products especially Nature’s Way’s, other factors which may influence profit, and the really need of the local schoolchildren. Such messages all need a more comprehensive market investigation.
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