Argument65 帮忙看一下 三天后考试

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 387
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010-4-16 下午 09:23:44

The argument is well-presented, but problematic in several aspects. By providing the fact that last year the best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheeses, as well as a survey by Cheese of World magazine which indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers, the arguer concludes that the company should discontinue many of the imported cheeses and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses to improve profits.

Firstly, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. There is no evidence that the five best-selling cheeses in the newest store will be popular with people in other areas. The arguer fails to analyze the particularity of this area or the newest store. There is a good chance that people in other areas gain an absolutely different favor in cheese, therefore, the best-selling cheeses imported do not appeal to them at all. Without further information to rule out such possibilities, one cannot come to any firm conclusion.

In addition, the argument relies on a vague survey by Cheese of World magazine which indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. The arguer provides slim evidence about the survey he cited that he cannot demonstrate the survey is conducted in a correct way. It is entirely possible that the subscribers who responded this survey are only a minority of all the subscribers, and the subscribers’ situations and favors are unknown to the survey conductors, which may lead to the situation that the sample is lack of representativeness. To substantiate it, the arguer must provide sufficient information to demonstrate the reliability of the survey.

Finally, the arguer simply assumes that reducing the inventory of imported cheeses and converting to domestic cheeses will result in an increase in profit, which is obviously gratuitous. In this analysis, the arguer oversimplifies the profit matters. As is known to all, even if the imported cheeses will be best-selling in all the stores, it does not necessarily mean a profit. Profits are determined by a series of matters, such as the competition in the market as well as economic situations in these areas.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To bolster it, the arguer must provide more information to ensure the credibility of the survey cited in his analysis. Moreover, unless other possibilities are considered and ruled out, one cannot accept the conclusion reached in this argument.

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