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本帖最后由 heisenberg0000 于 2010-6-23 17:27 编辑
麻烦楼主了,抱歉还不能上传附件
TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appearedin a medical newsletter.
"Doctors have long suspected thatsecondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severemuscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of astudy of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treatedfor muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sportsmedicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Theirrecuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected.Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a generalphysician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they weretaking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantlyreduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would bewell advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
The author claims that all patientsdiagnosed with muscle strain should take antibiotics. To support this claim,the author cites that secondary infections may keep some patients from healingquickly after severe muscle strain. The author also cites the study that thosepatients who take antibiotics heal more quickly than those who do not. However,close scrutiny reveals several flaws of the argument.
First of all, the information about the twogroups of patients is insufficient. The author fails to give the number of thepatients, thus, whether the patients are statistically significant in number isunknown. Besides, no detailed information about the severity of muscle strainis provided. Perhaps the patients suffered slight muscle strain, therefore theauthor cannot justify that secondary infections may hinder recovery of severemuscle strain. In addition, the author fails to provide information about thepatients' physical conditions, since the difference of physical conditionsbetween the two groups might affect the result.
Secondly, the experiment is not performedin a controlled environment. Since the two groups of patients were treated bytwo different doctors, it is difficult to ensure that the two groups weretreated in the same way. However, the very difference might affect thesecondary infections and lead to inaccurate comparison of the two groups.Furthermore, not all the patients would inevitably suffer secondary infections.Lacking evidence that all the patients were infected secondarily, it is equallypossible that none of the patients was infected, rendering the experimentmeaningless. What is more, sugar pills might have negative effects on thetreating. Without ruling out the possibility that sugar pills would hindermuscle strain recovering, the author cannot convince me that taking antibioticswould shorten the recuperation time.
Thirdly, not all patients are suitable totake antibiotics. Perhaps some patients are diagnosed with slight musclestrain, which is unlikely to cause secondary infections. In addition, the authorprovides no information about the price of antibiotics, perhaps antibiotics istoo expensive for most patients to afford. Also, the author fails to point outwhether taking antibiotics causes negative effects. Perhaps some patients areallergic to antibiotics, and taking antibiotics causes other more severeillness.
In sum, the conclusion reached in thisargument is unconvincing. To support the conclusion, the author must provideclear evidence that the physical conditions of the two groups are similarenough to make a comparison. The author should improve the experiment toperform it in a controlled environment. To convince me that the experiment isprecise, the author should also provide information about the proportion ofpatients who suffer secondary infections and who do not. To better access theargument, the author should point out the price and negative effects ofantibiotics. |
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