Definitely, a victory 小组第2次作业 argument45 By 森森霖

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Thefollowing appeared as an editorial n a wildlife journal.
“Arcticdeer live on islands in Canada’sarctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to islandduring the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough tosustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of theyear, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer totravel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, thedeer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent globalwarming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that thedecline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to followtheir age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.”



Theargument draw a conclusion that the decreasing population of the deer in Canada’sarctic region, which is reported by the local hunters, is due to the globalwarming trends, which makes the deer unable to follow their age-old migrationpatterns across the frozen sea. However, the inference is some kind ofunreliable with the illogical relationship between the author’s reasons andconclusions.

全球变暖并不能完全影响鹿的迁移。因为全球变暖不会致使全年的温度都上升到使得冰无法覆盖海洋的程度。
Firstly,the global warming trend cannot definitely change the deer’s age-old migrationfor the circumstances the deer live won’t alter so severely that the ice can’tcover the sea separating the island the whole year. The migration calls for thecold condition sometimes only at least some of the year. Perhaps the warmingtrend makes the ice melt at most months of the year; there are still a fewmonths that the ice can cover the sea, at least the winter of the Canada’s arcticregion. Only drawing the conclusion basing on the overall situation of theworld and ignoring the particular circumstances of the region lead theconclusion unlikelihood.

及时全球变暖对迁移有一定影响，捕猎者的报告也不能确定完全准确。捕猎者本身的捕猎行为对于鹿数量的减少也有影响，如果不是捕猎，是不会这么认真观察的。退一步，如果只是不捕鹿的捕猎者无意观察到的结果，那么由于不了解鹿的生活习性，报告同样不能让人信服。鹿可能正在迁徙之中，所以被观察到数量减少。
Secondly,even if the global warming trend has an influence on the declining of the deer’spopulation, it is not the sole one. Since the report is from the local hunter,we cannot rule out the possibility that the hunter’s killing is also a reasonfor the decreasing of the deer’s population. Without accurate observationneeded by hunting, how can hunters get the scene that the deer’s population isdrop? There may have another probability that the local hunters are happened towatch the scene and they are not hunting for the deer. If so, the report ismore suspectable for the deer perhaps are in migration at the time the hunterhappened to watch the scene and the hunter didn’t know.


鹿的减少和全球变暖都是一个过程，无法推知发生的先后，也就无法确定他们之间的因果关系。
Thirdly,both the declining of the deer’s population and the global warming are a kindof trend. We cannot infer which of them started first or end later. Onlyknowing they are happening now, at the same time, do nothing to contribute tothe reliability of the causality between them. So the causality of them is notassured.

Overall,the conclusion of the argument is based on so many unreliable demonstrations. Ithas to offer some more definite evidence to prove its conclusion.

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