argument65

hedengboUID: 2797857

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 549
TIME: 00:28:38
DATE: 2010-6-21 22:27:06


The president suggests that their stores around the nation will have to discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. To support its view, two statistics are presented--the sales in their newly opened stores last year and the result of a survey by Cheeses of the World magazine. However, further study reveals that they are convincing for some fallacies.

To begin with, the author uses the sales condition in their newly opened stores last year to support his suggestion. However, without ruling out other some possibilities, the support is weak. Firstly, how can the author use the condition of the just five newly opened stores to represent the condition of the stores all around the whole nation? The conclusion is biased as no details have been mentioned about the stores taken as samples. It is entirely possible that many other existing stores around the nation are not the so and even the majority of many other newly opened stores are not the case. Perhaps these five stores are in areas that people like domestic cheddar cheeses. Secondly, the period of one year is too short to lead to the conclusion. Perhaps some cheese company in the nation advertise a lot and they created something new which attracted customs a lot and the condition will not continue. Further more, what was in the last year cannot be used to predict the future as the market changes swiftly.

Moreover, the author cites the result of a survey conducted by a magazine. Then I am wondering if the result of the survey is credible. How many people read the magazine? Is the magazine a national one? Are all the subscribers are covered by the survey? Yet, none of these questions are answered. It is likely that the magazine is just a local magazine and the readers are much too few to contribute a credible result. What's more, it is quite possible that only those who interested in the domestic cheeses join the survey if the survey is not well designed as common sense informs us that people may only be interested in the survey that is beneficial to them.

Finally, the author concludes that the best way to improve the profits of the store around the nation is to discontinue stoking imported cheese. However, the conclusion is based on three assumptions that are weak. First, the profit of the store around the nation are low because of the imported cheese are stored and not selling well. However, nothing could ever prove this and even the domestic cheese sells better in some stores, it can't represent the stores around the nation. Secondly, the only factor that could influence the profits is stocking. Yet, this is unbelievable for the sales strategies, the advertisement are also important. Third, the profits of the domestic cheese are higher the imported one. This is not mentioned in the article.

In sum, the author fails to convince me that his recommendation is warranted. In fact, without the details of the sale of the cheese last year around the nation and that the situation will continue next year along with that people all around the nation will be interested in the domestic cheese instead of the imported one and ruling out other possibilities that influence the profits, the recommendation is unconvincing.