【Flyer杀G作文组】6.27-Argument118-By CC

师大菜菜UID: 2838404

TOPIC: ARGUMENT118 - The following appeared in a newsletter from a national astronomy association.

"Various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the country next winter, including in Sun City, the traditional location of our yearly winter conference. Higher winter temperatures are sure to result in higher-than-usual tourism in Sun City, a location already known for its attractive beaches and good weather. Hotels will have fewer rooms available, transportation will be more difficult to reserve, and public places such as parks and restaurants will be more crowded. These conditions are likely to significantly reduce attendance at the conference. We should therefore move our conference to a city less popular with winter tourists."
WORDS: 533
TIME: 01:00:00
DATE: 2010-6-27 上午 10:41:08


The newsletter gives a suggestion that they should move their conference to another city rather than Sun City, for the reason that the conditions of Sun City are likely to reduce attendance at the conference. To support the suggestion, the author points out various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the country next year which will leads higher tourism in Sun City, and then make the situation of Sun City not suitable for holding the conference. However, after a careful analysis, the argument has many logical flaws which make it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the author fails to give the details about the various sources which predict higher-than-average temperatures across the country.
For one thing, we don't know whether those sources are strong enough to give the prediction. If those sources are not authorities in temperature prediction, the prediction from them cannot lend any support to the conclusion. For another thing, they only predict temperatures is higher than average, but if the rise is too slight, the tourism in Sun City may be not changed.

What’s more, the author unfairly assumes that if the temperature is higher than average across the country, the temperature of Sun City will also higher than average. Lacking evidence that Sun City will also reflect this general tendency, it is entirely possible that the temperature will have not changed or even be more lower than usual, while the temperature is higher average across the country. Without further investigation on the temperature of Sun City in next year, the author cannot confidently conclude that the number of tourists in Sun City will rise.

Even I accept that the number of tourists in Sun City will rise, the author’s conclusion still relies another assumption that the rise of tourism will result in bad situation of Sun City. It is entirely possible that the government of Sun City may have predicted this rise of tourism, and has taken many measures to treat it. They may have been built more hotels and roads, and has taken more effective management to restaurants and parks. The author doesn't rule out this possibility, the conclusion is not convincing.

Even the assumptions mentioned above all are true, the author still fails to proof that they will have a better attendance at the conference in other cities than in Sun City. Other cities may also have some factors which are likely to significantly reduce attendance of the conference. For example, most attendees may be just only familiar with Sun City, since the conference has been held there for a long time. So the location change may leads that they fail to attend the conference. However, the author doesn’t take account the possibility.

To sum up, to bolster the conclusion, the author should proof those sources are strong enough to predict temperature. In order to make the conclusion more convincing, he also should provide more evidences about that the higher-than-average temperature across the country will really result in higher-than usual tourism and bad situations in Sun City. At last, if the author proofed they will have a better attendance at the conference in other city than in Sun City, the suggestion more make sense.


一个小时，刚刚写完，单词有不少拼写错误。
注意练习书写顺序，先写 开头，结尾
再写每段topic sentence, 然后再展开

红绡UID: 2839171

1# 师大菜菜

The newsletter gives a suggestion that they should move their conference to another city rather than Sun City, for the reason that the conditions of Sun City are likely to reduce attendance at the conference. To support the suggestion, the author points out various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the country next year which will leads higher tourism in Sun City, and then makes the situation of Sun City not suitable for holding the conference.（这句话有语病，出现两个动词）However, after a careful analysis, the argument has many logical flaws which make it unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the author fails to give the details about the various sources which predict higher-than-average temperatures across the country.
For one thing, we don't know whether those sources are strong enough to give the prediction. If those sources are not authorities in temperature prediction（这句话不通，按照你的意思应该用：authorized）, the prediction from them cannot lend any support to the conclusion. For another thing, they only predict temperatures is higher than average, but if the rise is too slight, the tourism in Sun City may be not changed.

What’s more, the author unfairly assumes that if the temperature is higher than average across the country, the temperature of Sun City will also higher than average. Lacking evidence that Sun City will also reflect this general tendency, it is entirely possible that the temperature will have not changed or even be more lower than usual, while the temperature is higher average across the country. Without further investigation on the temperature of Sun City in next year, the author cannot confidently conclude that the number of tourists in Sun City will rise.

Even I accept that the number of tourists in Sun City will rise, the author’s conclusion still relies another assumption that the rise of tourism will result in bad situation of Sun City. It is entirely possible that the government of Sun City may have predicted this rise of tourism, and has taken many measures to treat it. They may have been built more hotels and roads, and has taken more effective management to restaurants and parks. The author doesn't rule out this possibility, the conclusion is not convincing.

Even the assumptions mentioned above all are true, the author still fails to proof
（prove）that they will have a better attendance at the conference in other cities than in Sun City. Other cities may also have some factors which are likely to significantly reduce attendance of the conference. For example, most attendees may be just only familiar with Sun City, since the conference has been held there for a long time. So the location change may lead that they fail to attend the conference. However, the author doesn’t take account the possibility.

To sum up, to bolster the conclusion, the author should proof (prove) those sources are strong enough to predict temperature. In order to make the conclusion more convincing, he also should provide more evidences about that the higher-than-average temperature across the country will really result in higher-than usual tourism and bad situations in Sun City. At last, if the author proofed they will have a better attendance at the conference in other city than in Sun City, the suggestion more make sense.

总体来说，逻辑很清晰，偶尔有些小毛病，如拼写、语法。希望以后注意下用词。

师大菜菜UID: 2838404

2# 红绡

谢谢，这篇文章得重写