TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
This memo begins by stating that consumers are more and more enthusiastic to grow vegetables by themselves. The owner presents a nationally conducted survey that many a consumers expressed dissatisfaction with the quality of fresh vegetables sold in supermarkets and a fact that the local gardening magazine has been sold fast to backup his judgment. So that the argument of expanding the variety of vegetable seeds seems logical.
However, the owner is falling to recognize other possible factors to the dissatisfaction with the quality. Such factors may include the fact that the season changes and the quality of vegetable resources are in depression, so whether consumers buy in the supermarkets or grow their own vegetables makes no difference. Or the season remains the same, but can statistic last month surely predicts consumer’s need in the coming spring?
Vegetable markets varies in different weeks, or in different days. More than a season is an enough long time for consumer to determine their new appetite again. In addition, the national survey only indicates the average appetite around the nation, which fails to support that this suburban town has the same tendency of dissatisfaction. Maybe this town is just on the above-average half of the samples; the owner’s decision would contradict the market and thus make little profits.
Moreover, the owner fails to rule out alternative explanations for the magazines sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Customers may buy a magazine out of a variety of reasons. Magazines and books are purchased, maybe for their fantastic pictures, maybe for their cheap price, or just for the high-quality print. Many elements contribute to the popularity of a magazine, and we would deduce to a one-sided conclusion if we owe the magazine prosperity to nothing but consumer’s interest in growing vegetables themselves.
Finally, the owner mistakes the connection between increasing the profits and expanding the variety of stocks. As any businessman knows, profit is equilibrium to discrepancy between sales and costs, and sales equates price multiplied by amounts. Even if the amount increases because of the expanding stock, the profit may still drop by changing the costs and prices. Consequently it is impossible to increase the profit without fixing other factors.
In conclusion, the argument, although seems logical at the first sight, has several flaws as discussed above. It could be more convincing by providing evidence that the correlation is indeed a causal relationship, and it can be further improved by ruling out alternative explanations.
1#Ocean~Spray
This memo begins by stating that consumers are more and more enthusiastic to grow vegetables by themselves. The owner presents(这个单词可以这样用吗?是表示提出?) a nationally conducted survey that many a (去掉)consumers expressed dissatisfaction with the quality of fresh vegetables sold in supermarkets and a fact that the local gardening magazine has been sold fast to backup his judgment. So that the argument of expanding the variety of vegetable seeds seems logical.
However, the owner is falling to recognize other possible factors to the dissatisfaction with the quality. Such factors may include the fact that the season changes and the quality of vegetable resources are in depression, so whether consumers buy in the supermarkets or grow their own vegetables makes(make) no difference. Or(even if, 这里加一个表示递进的单词比较好) the season remains the same(remain :to continue unchanged,已经包含 the same的意思了), but can statistic last month surely predicts consumer’s need in the coming spring?
Vegetable markets varies(动词单复数) in different weeks, or in different days. More than a season is an enough long time for consumer to determine their new appetite again(你这句话和前面的有什么关系呢?是想说人们的兴趣经常改变吗?我觉得这是一个不错的反驳的观点,但是这句话放在这里太突兀了,另起一段加以扩展一下会比较好,你说呢?). In addition, the national survey only indicates the average appetite around the nation, which fails to support that this suburban town has the same tendency of dissatisfaction. Maybe this town is just on the above-average half of the samples; the owner’s decision would contradict the market and thus make little profits.(调查的范围问题一直都是一个很经典的反驳观点,可以再充实一下内容)
Moreover, the owner fails to rule out alternative explanations for the magazines sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Customers may buy a magazine out of a variety of reasons(这个短语没有看懂). Magazines and books are purchased, maybe for their fantastic pictures, maybe for their cheap price, or just for the high-quality print. Many elements contribute to the popularity of a magazine, and we would deduce to a one-sided conclusion if we owe the magazine prosperity to nothing but consumer’s interest in growing vegetables themselves.
Finally, the owner mistakes the connection between increasing the profits and expanding the variety of stocks. As any businessman knows, profit is equilibrium to discrepancy between sales and costs, and sales equates price multiplied by amounts. Even if the amount increases because of the expanding stock, the profit may still drop by changing the costs and prices. Consequently it is impossible to increase the profit without fixing other factors.(这一段论证的不错哦,记下了)
In conclusion, the argument, although seems logical at the first sight, has several flaws as discussed above. It could be more convincing by providing evidence that the correlation is indeed a causal relationship, and it can be further improved by ruling out alternative explanations.