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TOPIC: ARGUMENT195 - The following is a letter from an editor at Liber Publishing Company to the company's president.
"In recent years, Liber has unfortunately moved away from its original mission: to publish the works of regional small-town authors instead of those of big-city authors. Just last year, 90 percent of the novels we published were written by authors who maintain a residence in a big city. Although this change must have been intended to increase profits, it has obviously backfired, because Liber is now in serious financial trouble. The only way to address this problem is to return to our original mission. If we return to publishing only the works of regional small-town authors, our financial troubles will soon be resolved."
WORDS: 502 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2010/7/8 10:17:06
The conclusion that Liber Publishing Company should return to its original mission to solve their financial trouble seems to be sound. After all, the evidence established in the argument appears at the first glance to be support to it. After close scrutiny of the argument, however, the author may mask alternative explanations for the company's serious financial trouble, and if true, may even lead into an unsuccessful decision.
First of all, the argument is weakened by the fact that it provides no absolute evidence that Liber has moved away its original mission. As mentioned in the argument, 90 percent of the novels the company published were written by authors who maintain a residence in a big city. However, this does not necessarily indicate that these authors mainly live in big cities. It is entirely possible that these authors who bought a house in big city just want to invest in real estate to make money, and they actually live in small town most of their time. In that case, these authors may also belong to regional small-town authors. Even if these authors are not regional small-town authors, there is no data to show that the original percent of the works written by authors who lived in small-town. Maybe, although the company mainly focuses on the works of small-town authors, the number of small-town authors is too low. So, the works of small-town published by Liber may be more than other companies, but they are still a small percent among all the works published. In that case, the percent of works published by Liber may not decrease. In addition, the editor only tells us that 90 percent of novels were written by big-town writer. However, the kind of works is not only just novel. What is the percent of other kinds of works written by small-town authors? What is the percent of novels among all kinds of works?
Second, the author also fails to consider other possible factors which may also cause a financial trouble. It is at least likely the economic condition should be responsible for it. Perhaps the economy was in a depression last year, and many the potential customs had lost their jobs. In that case, they might have no extra money to buy books. Thus, to make the argument more granted, the author should make clear whether there is other possible factors which can also cause a financial trouble.
Finally, the author provides no evidence to prove that the books written by small-town writers are good sellers. It is entirely possible that the readers are far more like the books written by big-city writers due to the fact that those books are more interesting.
In sum, the argument for returning to Liber Publishing Company original mission is well-presented, and provides significant information for the company to solve the financial problem. However, before making any decision, the author should make clear the problems mentioned above. After all, a false decision will not play a role in increasing the company's profits.
7月15号就要考了,欢迎狂拍。谢谢。 |
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