argument 99 谢谢各位了！

hedengboUID: 2797857

TOPIC: ARGUMENT99 - The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
WORDS: 679
TIME: 00:29:25
DATE: 2010-7-20 11:25:48


The author claims that because our neighbor country developed a new variety of seed and hence their productions was 80 percent more than the previous year, our country should also do so and our trade will be balanced by begin to exporting it. However, the progress of deduction suffers from some fallacies.

To begin with, the author introduces the situation in another country but several possibilities are not ruled out. Firstly, is it possible that the increased rice produced last year was due to some other reasons: Did Abundia use some new technologies expect the development of the new variety of seed? It is possible that Abundia use some other kind of technologies at the same time to increase the production, which might be the real reasons why it increased. While the development of the variety of seed actually lead to a reduction but can't counteract the increase brought by other technologies. Was the whether condition fairly good last year? Perhaps the whether last year was much better than the previous years. There were enough water, enough sunshine and enough rains. If any of the possibilities were proved to be true, then the increase of the production can't be hastily attributed to the new variety of seed. Secondly, a year is not a long enough time to make a conclusion that the new variety of seed is truly beneficial. To get a more convincing conclusion, we need a longer time of observation.

Even if more details could prove that the increase of the production in Abundia is the result of the new variety of seed. We can't hastily recommend that we should encourage our farmers to cultivate this new variety of rice instead of our traditional crops. The author rests this conclusion on two assumptions which are problematic. First, the author assumes after the production in Abundia increased, it could exceed the production of rice in our country. However, nothing could prove this. It is possible that even the production has increased there, it is still much less than ours. In this case, there is no necessary for us to use the seed they developed. Second, the author assumes that the seed could also grow well here in our country. While this not always the case. The seed might just not suitable to grow in our county and they actually might produce less than our traditional crops.

Finally, the author makes a conclusion that after use the new variety of seed, our country's balance of trade will be improved by exporting it. To begin with, the author doesn't mention anything about the profit of the new kind of seed. It is possible that although the production increases, the profit might decrease. Perhaps, to buy the new seed or to plant it will cost much more money than the crops. And some other money might cost is not provided. Such as the fees to teach the farmers how to grow a new kind of seed, the fees to change the traditional crop fields to new fields. On the other hand, the author doesn't mention anything about the structure of the economy in his/her country. It is possible that their country has a fully developed structure of trading the crops while it can hardly be changed to deal with the new seed. Finally, the trade balance might not be improved if the main export production is not the farmer production. Or perhaps the trade balance was very good in the past while the change of seed might have bad effect on the balance.

To sum up, I can't be convinced by the author unless more statistics could prove it is the change of the seed that increase the production of the rice last year in Abundia and the condition here in Paucia such as the whether, the field, the economy structure are suitable for the new seed. Moreover, the situations here in Paucia in the past, the comparison of the production between Paucia and Abundia in the past and the profit of the new variety of seed should also be considered.

hedengboUID: 2797857

先顶上来再说！

resulUID: 2829806

哥们，你这篇绝对是6分的料啊，真没啥改了，逻辑很清晰，几乎没有语法错误，用词地道，字数也多、