issue 184 提纲式写作，待补充~~~

doraliuUID: 2842061

"It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data“


Does theorization without data inevitably lead to wrong results? Though the author seems to be quiet confident with the answer of yes, I have a different opinion. While concede that data is very important to scientific research, there exits theories that can not be proved by data and theories that are deducted by logical reasoning.




First of all, I agree on the point that data is very important in building up some theories. Such as the theory of evolution by Darwin, the invention of bulb by Einstein, and the birth of hybrid rice due to the enormous experiments conducted by Yuannongping. Without careful experiments, data collecting process,and carefull analysis  these discoveries or inventions were just illusions.

However, there are theories that can not be proved because of the perfect conditions can not be satisfied in real life or technology has not yet achieves the level of proving. Take the perfect competition market in economic for example. Such a market does not exist in any country, but economist still use the theory to analyze the behavior of customers in that market that resemble the perfect competition market; also the theory that if one day the speed of some material can excel the speed of light, time will turn back. This theory just can not be proved in real life. And big bang theory, the origination of universe, these theories can never be proven by data, but they are still accepted by people, because they soundly explain the various phenomenons that confusing us. And there are many physical experiments that need to be conduct in completely free air, and completely free of friction, we are not able to collect data that are absolutely required by these theories. Does this mean these theories are wrong? The statement mistakenly assumed that if one can not prove the rightness of a theory, then the theory is wrong.



Moreover, there are theories that come from logical reasoning without data collecting. For example the Goldbach Conjecture solved by chengjinrun, he deducted the theory through logical process. And it is also true to other theories that are proven not through experiments and data. The theory of communism by max, the theory of many philosophy themes, they are not supported by data, but by reasonable deduction. And to the field of arts and humanities, theory of impression, and post-modernization and musical style of pop, classical, these areas require origination instead of data collection or analyzing.

To sum up, data is important and reliable in proving some theories, but we can not over state the importance of data to claim that without data, all theories could be wrong, there are situation that data can not be acquired to prove theories but that do not mean these theories are wrong, and there are situation that theories are not proven or brought out by data, but by carefully deduction.