帮我拍拍--ISSUE 184

xiaohuimi291UID: 2760978

TOPIC: ISSUE184 - "It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."
WORDS: 386
TIME: 00:45:00
DATE: 2010-7-28 16:20:26

I agree that scientists need collect enough data before thay make a theory. However, there might be some circumstances which leave them no data to conclude so that they should theorize proior to have data. Thus, I hold the view that we should theorize on the data available while concluding without data in the condition where it is not permitable for us to achive a data but have to make a conclusion.

It is well known that scientist could construct a theory after obtaining suffient data for the the reason that theories should be based on various data to lend a support. Since phenonmena and figures could reflect the regulation more directly, a variety of theory are formed from the observation and the following data collection. Consider, for instance, the discover of Mendal Laws of inheritance. To make a valid conclusion, he cultivated and tested some 29,000 pea plants. After Mendao self-fertilized the first generation, he obtained the 3:1 ratio between green peas and yellow peas, which set a
foundation for him to theorize his first law of seperation.

Meanwhlie, adequate date play an indispensible role in gaining the credibility for a theory. Afer all, data is an convincing evidence to prove a conclusion. For example, in the survey of depression ratio in the world, we could not make any conclusion if we have not achieve data. However, once we obtain a series of data, its coverage area, its effectiveness for a limited time, and so forth, would determine if a comprehensible conclusion could be made. Back to that depression survey, if we have not collect the depression patients in everywhere in the world, if we have not calculate the average depression ratio in each area, the results and the following conclusion might not be approve by the authotical instituations.

However, we could not always obtain the data in real world for the limited technologies and the specification of some certain specifics. Consider, for instance, in the study of mathmatics, could survey a sample over billions of people or other things to make a theory? If this is the case, most of the theories, such as wejifen, jihexue, could not be built.

In sum, I strongly approve the statement that we should theorize after obtaining adequate data except for the circumstance that the data is unavailable.