想知道这篇限时ARGUMENT大概能拿几分啊~~~求拍。。。谢谢。。。

给飞的回忆UID: 2793438

TOPIC: ARGUMENT99 - The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
WORDS: 570
TIME: 00:26:29
DATE: 2010/8/24 22:49:28
1、
A地的情况和P地不同，可能在A地产量大是因为A地气候的变化或者土壤的问题。
2、
即便真的是因为种子导致A地产量大，一年的时间也不够长。可能忽视了一些副作用，可能长期来看产量又会下降。
3、
作者认为产量上升会导致收入上升。收入和很多因素挂钩，并不仅仅是产量。
4、
是否能带来贸易平衡还要看市场状况。

In this argument, the author makes a recommendation that in order to improve the production of rice, famers of Paucia ought to cultivate a particular new variety of rice instead of conventional crops. In order to support this recommendation, the author cite several evidence including the production of rice in neighboring country Abundia. However, after a carful examination of the supportive evidence as well as the recommendation, I found this argument is somewhat illogical and consequently unpersuasive.


First of all, to bolster the recommendation, the speaker cites the production after the introduction of the new kind of seeds in Abundia. Unfortunately, it seems that the author ignored the possible geographical diversities between these two countries. It is entirely possible that the soil condition in Abundia is suitable for this new seed while the soil condition in Paucia is not. It is also possible that it is the change of climate in Abundia that led to the increase of rice production of Abundia, not the new seed. In short, the condition of Abundia is presented will-nilly on the condition of Paucia. Therefore, the evidence in Abundia might be a red-herring to Paucia.

Moreover, even assuming that the introduction of new seeds
leads to the increase of production. It is unfair to assume that one year is long enough to prove this point. Perhaps, in the short term the new seeds serve to the improvement of production, while in the long run, the new seeds will cause some undesirable effects and lead to a reduction of production. Without providing other detail information to support that one year is long enough to prove the author's point. I cannot convince myself that new seeds will keep increasing
production in the future.

Furthermore, the author hasty establish a relationship between the increase of income and the increase of production.
It is possible that because of the poor financial condition in the world, the crops cultivated by famers cannot be sold. In that case, a increase of production can hardly lead to an increase of income. Some other elements, including the general policies applied by government and the general condition of markets, will also have some evident effect on the income of famers. To sum up, the author fails to make his suggestion professional for the reason that the author does not take other elements into consideration.

Another problem of this argument is that the author unreasonably assumes that such high yields of rice will promote the trade balance of Paucia. Yet, the author fails to provide a detail description of the economical and agricultural condition of Paucia. There do exist the possibility that due to the prevalence of this new seeds, all countries in that area has high yields of rice. For that matter, the trade balance in Paucia will not be improved. Consequently, without any detail information about the economical and agricultural condition of Paucia, I cannot find the author's recommendation the least bit feasible.

In conclusion, in this argument, the author makes a recommendation that famers in Paucis ought to cultivate new seed instead of traditional crops by virtue of the successful example of Abundia. To bolster this recommendation, the author should provide more detail description of Abundia and prove that Abundia and Paucia do share some geographical similarity. In addition, the author should take other financial elements into consideration. Otherwise, I can hardly find the speaker's argument is persuasive, professional and practical.