Argument12 提纲

Luise8891UID: 2906459

12The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.

"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."

Luise8891UID: 2906459

1)        The assumpton that the reason why Alta Manufacturing had more on-the-jod accidents is contributed by the fatigue and sleep derivation caused by one hour longer than nearby Panoply Industries is unwarrented.理由：首先，两家公司是不是造一样的东西？有不有可比性。其次，如果是同一类型的公司，应该比较两个制造公司的其他条件，像安全设施，员工的安全意识，员工的技能水平。
2)        Even if it is due to the fatigue and the sleep deprivative that Alta Manufacture has a high rate of on-the-jod accidents,no evidence has been given to prove that the worker need one more hour to get adequent sleep.why one hour?maybe more is needed?maybe the work burden in Alta Manufacturing is heavier.
3)        Whether the measure taken can increse productivity is open to doubt.On the contrary,the arguer ignores the possible negaive impact that might be brought about by the measure that shortens one hour of work for workers.

刘文奇UID: 2850560

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."
在过去，Alta工厂的工伤事故比邻近的Panoply工厂多30％，Panoply的每班工作时间比我们的短一个小时。专家相信导致很多工伤事故的重要因素就是工人的疲劳和睡眠不足。因此，为减少Alta的工伤事故数量并提高生产数量，我们应该把我们的三个班次的工作时间每个都减少一小时，从而我们的雇员将有更充足的睡眠。
论断：粗略一看，memo中的论断似乎很合理，但通过仔细推敲，发现要想使得这个论断成立，必须要满足文中隐含的四个假设：① Alta工厂的工伤事故比邻近的Panoply工厂多30％，是因为Alta工厂的工人比Panoply 附近工厂的工人工作时间长一个小时。②导致很多工伤事故的重要因素就是工人的疲劳和睡眠不足。③第二结论也可以推论到Alta附近的工厂。④减少工作时间一定能减少公认的疲劳，使工人的睡眠时间增长。但是这四个假设都没有很好的支持。
段二：Alta工厂的工伤事故比邻近的Panoply工厂多30％，不一定是因为Alta工厂的工人比Panoply 附近工厂的工人工作时间长一个小时。可能在Alta工厂工作的风险本来就比在Panoply工作的风险大。也许是因为Alta生产更容易导致工伤的产品，也可能是因为Alta工厂的保障投入较小。
段三：工作疲劳和睡眠不足可能不是Alta地区高工伤事故的原因。首先，由于在memo中没有提供足够的证据，所以专家的那个论断并不可信。即使专家的那个信念是基于严谨的调查，我们也不能确定这个研究是否能推论到Alta地区。只有确定那个研究的被研究者样本和Alta地区工厂工人具有可比性，我们才能接受这个论断。
段四：即使段三和段二中所提到的假设都成立，没有第四个假设，memo中的论断还是不能成立。你一定能保证减少一个小时的工作时间就一定能显著减少疲劳，延长工人的随眠时间吗？答案当然是非常不确定的。有很大的可能性，工人并没有将这多出来的一小时用于休息，而是用来做其他的事。比如，和朋友聚会，做运动等。
总结。