11-17提纲作业argument 207

zcsdtcUID: 2875047

207
It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.


请于23：30将提纲跟帖回复

zcsdtcUID: 2875047

The author believes that This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.
the reasons:Earth's ozone layer becomes thin and  the amount of ultraviolet radiation increases,a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined
and ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, the author believes  it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching.
反驳：1. 大气层变薄，射线进入地球是会增多，但不是所有种类的射线进入地球都增多，一些种类的射线还是没有增多的。而进入地球的射线或许没有很强的分解组织的能力，则salamander的蛋的减少不是由于射线造成的。
2.即使射入地球的射线具有很强的分解组织的能力，可以分解salamander的蛋，是因为蛋没有壳，而其他的物种的蛋或者卵可能是有很好的保护措施的，比如是存在洞里的，或者有很厚的壳进行保护。
3.salamander的蛋的真正减少的原因是什么？是射线增多的原因吗？和人类的活动无关吗？和其他自然环境的变化无关吗？这一切都是需要深入调查的。

zhangwanyingUID: 2775533

This statement is unreasoned due to some logical flaws.
(1) No presice statistics are provide to show that the area in which the species of salamander has declined is also suffering from increasing amount of ultraviolet radiation.
(2)At the absence of the biological study of salamander eggs and their hatching, it is unpersuasive to draw the conclusion that the increase in ultraviiolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. Perhaps there are other effective protective tissues in the surface of eggs, or perhaps that the eggs are covered in rocks or leaves during incubation period.
(3) No statistical information is provided to show that the process will cause population declines in other species.

一个物种的数量和其他很多因素有关系，比如natural enemies, living space,food,population size.

daniexiaUID: 2403405

many salamander eggs have been damaged是事实，不能攻击。

daniexiaUID: 2403405

(1) The correlation between the declination of salamander in mountain lakes and the increasing amount of ultraviolet that reaches the Earth is not causal relationship, even though they happen at the same time.
(2) It may be not the case that the increase in ultrviolet radiation damaged salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching.
(3) By relying on the declination of the species of salamander that lays eggs in mountain lakes, the author cannot conclude that all species of salamander suffers from this kind of climate change.
(4) Even if salamander may be harmed by the increase of ultraviolet, it is still unfair to claim that the harm will not doubt cause population declines in other species.