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本帖最后由 jefferysy 于 2010-11-23 22:55 编辑
The following appeared in a memo from the manager oftelevision station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
第一:全国性的调查仍具有片面性不能放映到个体。
第二:一个措施的改变在别的地方取得成绩不一定也适应另一个地方。
第三:作者将结果强加,本是带来观众,最后说带来利益。
In this statement, the author said that increasing more sport shows can draw lager audiences to KICK and gain more profits than before for his company. To support what he said, the author cites survey around the world and compare to positive change in WACK. At first glance, it seems to reasoning, however, for a further inherent cogitation, which is not perfect in some facets.
Firstly, what the author wants to substantiate KICK by using a national survey, which contain a widely space and complicated process. It may not as exactly precise as we expect when we put it to analogy an endemic range. Just like weather prediction, there will be rainy tomorrow in one states of the country. However, the weather prediction can’t assure to rain every place in states. So, citing a national survey isn’t feasible for this statement.
Secondly, for engaging more audience, the author take the same measure happened and worked in WACK. Reaping profits may stem from all kind of reasons. For instance, people who really indicted to sports at that place or national sports time are show at that time and so on. When apply the situation of WACK to KICK. Result may change, also we have no idea about the culture and hobby of KICK. To the bad thinking, if people do not watch sport shows or seldom observe them, then what the author expects may lead a opposite influence.
Lastly, increasing audiences is the goal and finally profits become the conclusion. Apparently, numbers of audience have nothing to do with profit. Company may import some sport shows to relax audience or profile the shows to attract more people for free. To KICK, maybe he prefer audience to profit. Also the conclusion seems to exclude the statement.
In sum, the author’s state is unfounded, to make this convincing, the author need a more profound evidence. Like, make a small survey in KICK, and pay a attention to it’s past and future trend or others
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