“风雨与共” 第一天 Argument 提纲 by 【5】

arksapmis30UID: 2973097

239The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton.


"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."


1，  青少年犯罪率下降不一定仅仅是因为宵禁。
2，  即使1不成立，市镇广场无犯罪不代表其他地方无犯罪。
3，  即使1,2都不成立，青少年犯罪率下降不能保证同样法律在dalton会使其犯罪率下降。
4，  即使3不成立，青少年犯罪率下降不代表整体犯罪率下降。更何况1,2,3都是成立的。





1. The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."



1，  前提不可靠，关注健康生活不代表就会有强烈的对health food的购买欲望，在这些地区的高盈利可能由其他原因导致，比如优秀的市场策略。
2，  即使前提成立，仅仅根据plainsville的商家关于运动鞋和运动衣的高销量的报告难以得出此地居民对健康生活高度关注，可能仅仅因为此地居民喜爱球类运动，或通过锻炼达到放松与愉悦心情的目的，或者仅仅因为这些商家在进行一系列的优惠活动导致销量增长。
3，  同样的，康体俱乐部的成功也不代表作者假设的条件成立，同样可能因为优秀的市场策略，打折活动等等。相反的，此俱乐部之前频临倒闭的情况反而让我们看到此地市场前景的不乐观。
4，  终生健康”项目更加不可能与该地区潜在的市场扩大可能性有关，学生可能会因为被迫参与此项目而产生反感情绪，另外即使此项目获得成功也不代表学生以后会对健康生活保持持久关注，最后，值得注意的是此项目强调的是经常锻炼的好处，而习惯经常锻炼不意味着对health food的购买欲望。




2. The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and house painting."

1，错误类比，适用于brookville的限令可能不适用于deerhaven。
2，即使1不成立，average property values的上升并不一定就因为限令的实施，有可能是因为当地房地产市场突然回暖，政府政策改变，或有人为炒房行为等等。另外如果当地地产价值本来就低的话，翻三倍也并不是个大幅度的增长。
3，即使2不成立，这个限令实施的时间都已经是七年前了，七年前的情况和现在相比会相差甚远，包括人的审美观，限令的适用度等。更何况1，2都成立。