最后的战役 第二周 argument 53 by Tom

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Argument 53 " Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showd signs of mild distress when expose to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decrease daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life."

In this argument, the author concluded that increased level of melatonin before birth will cause shyness  during infancy and this shyness will continues into later life. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that a study discovered that a group of 25 infants showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape of recording of an unknown voice. And those infants are more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn with increased levels of melatonin that a hormone known to affect some brain functions. In addition, the arguer reasons that during the following study that more than half of these children who is teenagers identified themselves as shy. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

In the first place, the arguer fail to take into account the effect of the melatonin hormone. It has not provided any details about this substance, what the function of this hormone and whether it would effect the infants or the mother. Moreover, there is not any evidence that can proof melatonin will have an effect on infants. The only clue we can get from this argue is melatonin can affect some brain functions, but it not assert that it will definitely affect the infant and result in shyness of infants. Maybe this hormone has not any connection with the shyness during infancy. In this case, the conclusion that melatonin cause shyness in infants will make no sense.

In the second place, the comparison in this argument is incomplete and selective. The argue quote a study which started thirteen year ago and compared with the phenomenon observated recently. Thirteen years ago, a group of 25 infants showed signs of mild distress when expose to unfamiliar stimuli. However, that does not means that the mild distress derived from the unfamiliar stimuli was sighs of shyness. It might only the response of uncomforty when those infants exposed to unusual odor or tape of recording of an unknown voice. Moreover, the argument assert that more than half of infants studied thirteen years ago identified themselves as shy. The arguer failed to consider several other relevant factors that may influence the shyness of these teenagers. It is known that one’s character is to some extent influenced by the atmosphere he or she lived in. The arguer does not supply any information about these samples lived

in during the past thirteen years. It cannot be avoid that the shyness of those teenagers result from their family and life style.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the effect of melatonin on infants. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding the living atmosphere of these infant raised during the past thirteen years.