第一篇argu45，诚求各位指点，3q~~

siran723UID: 2993601

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


In this argument, the editorial claims that the population of arctic deer is in decline. To argue this opinion, the editorial gives us reports from local hunters, and contacts this population decrease phenomenon with global warming trends. But with these insufficient talking points, I can’t agree with the editorial’s assertion.
Firstly, the editorial offers reports which reveal the deer populations are in decline just reported by local hunters. But as I can’t find the number of hunters who involved in these reports, and I also don’t know if these hunters are in a limited regions, I am strongly suspicious of whether the reports are representative samples or not. It is entirely possible that the hunters who responded the reports are from limited regions while most of deer to the moment moved to other regions. Without enough evidence, I can't agree the editorial's viewpoint that the populations of deer are decreasing.
Secondly, even I assume the populations of deer are indeed declining, the editorial doesn't provide any adequate evidence to persuade me that these decline are related with global warming trends. Perhaps there are some other reasons which cause the decline of deer population. For example, the hunters have hunt a large number of deer, or some kind of disease make the population of deer reduce hastily, or maybe lack of food could also be a possible reason. With such alternative options absent, I would not stand by the editorial.
Thirdly, the editorial falsely assumes that if the sea ice melts, deer could not follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, and that would lead to deer population decrease. But the editorial doesn't consider that deer might change their migration habits to adapt themselves to the new climate and environment.
In sum, the argument might be not as reasonable as it stands. To better illuminate it, I need much more reliable reports with enough reporters who are from regions cover all living place of arctic deer to show that the deer population is indeed decreasing. Besides, the editorial should give me the causality between deer population decrease and global warming trends. I also need evidence that show the decrease of population is the consequence of changing migration patterns which caused by melt of sea ice.
共376字，求各位高人指点，本人水平有限，大家一定要多多指出我的缺点，谢谢啦~~