刚写的第二篇 求砖求指点 Arugment No。45 高频

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"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."


WORDS: 454 TIME: 12:30:00 AM DATE: 6/6/2011


The arguer put forward a well-presented but not well-rounded causal statement that recent global warming trends are responsible for the declining populations of Arctic deer. After a second thought, the global warming trends might be the scapegoat in this case because the conclusion is drawing from an insufficient and unreliable report combined with unrounded reasoning. Firstly, we almost know nothing about the so called local hunters. The arguer didn't mention a word about how many of those local hunters and how well they know these arctic deer. It is likely possible that only a few hunter claim the population of the deer has been declined and it is also possible that those who claimed are not familiar with the deer. They might witness this phenomenon in the slack season when it is naturally and obviously the numbers of the deer seen by human has been declined. Even if the number of the deer spotted by hunters has been declined, it does not mean the number of the deer existing in that area is running down. Due to the condition of the herbs and plants they feed, the deer could move deep to the forest far from civilization and hunters to find more food. The number of deer saw by hunters can not directly argue that the number of the deer existing has also fallen. Secondly, global warming trends might did melt the sea ice but they also could provided a better environment for the plants on the islands to grown or even bring up new spices of plants. It is possible that due to the global warming, deer not longer needs to across the ice cubes getting to the other island for food because they have already gotten enough here. After a long evolution, the deers might get used to these new plants also. There are also a lot of things might coincide with these reports, like financial crisis, solar ebb or volcano movements. It is very unconvincing and unreliable to rely on occasional coinciding without any further scientific experiment or study. Thirdly, as the arguer mentioned this crossing ice is an age-old migration patterns. After thousands years' evolution and adaption, the deer might not even choose traveling over the frozen sea. They know this area so well that might develop new tricks for food. If the deer no longer take a step on the frozen sea ice, how could the global warming trends affect the population of those arctic deer by melting the ice? In conclusion, the reasoning of the author lacks sufficient evidences, sounded scientific connections and well-founded consideration as discussed above. Without ruling out other possibilities, one can not blame global warning trends for the uncertain declining population of arctic deer.