argument66 【1106G】gelivable小组 第1次作业

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好像有许多问题...
题目：ARGUMENT66 - The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
字数：465
用时：1h

日期：2011/1/29 11:02:16

提纲：
1. Homes have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating does not necessary mean they will continue this tradition in the future.
2.一家天气预报不一定准确
3. Many new houses have been built in this region does not indicate that their will be more residents living there.
4.客户投资CI不一定是合适的


In this argument the author concludes that the demand for heating oil will be increased and recommends the client to invest Consolidated Industries whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil. To justify this recommendation the author points out that there were many homes has been built in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold and homes in this region have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating, and the author also points out that climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that the cold weather which this region has experienced pattern will continue for several more years. Careful examination of this supporting evidence find it lend little support to this recommendation.

First of all, homes having traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating does not necessary mean they will continue this tradition in the future. Perhaps, for the cold weather, they will change their tradition to some effective and environmental friendly fuel. Thus, without credible evidence that the using of oil of homes in the northeastern United States will continue for several more years, I cannot accept the author's conclusion that the demand for heating oil will be increased.

Secondly, even if these homes will continue using oil as their heating fuel, there is no clear evidence that the prediction which make by the climate forecaster at Waymarsh University is credible. It is entirely possible that there are many contrary forecast made by some authoritative weather forecasters. Thus, only one prediction hardly suffice to prove the dickey weather will continue for several more years.

Thirdly, many new houses built in this region does not indicate that their will be more residents living in there. The author overlooks the possibility that this homes are prepared for the tourists living in the south to escape from the hot summer. Without accounting for this possibility the author cannot convincingly conclude that the using quantity of heating oil will be increased.

Finally, even assuming that the demand of heating oil is increased, the author cannot reasonably conclude that his or her client should invest Consolidated Industries (CI). It is entirely possible that the leader of CI is inefficient and CI cannot profit from this business, or perhaps there are some other companies whose major operations is sale of heating oil and invest in these companies is profitable and advisable.

In sum, the argument relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing. To bolster this argument the author must provide clear evidence to justify the demand of heating oil will be increased and the cold weather will continue. To better assess this argument, I would also need to know whether the leader of CI is effective or there is no other company which is more profitable than CI.
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