ARGUMENT 53...这篇其实很没有手感...

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 479          TIME: 00:55:05          DATE: 2/4/2011 2:28:12 PM

This topic has shown that most of the 25 infants who had some unfamiliar stimuli thirteen years ago in a research still have the shyness the earlier year, and the season they were conceived was early autumn which was the time that melatonin would naturally increase. Because of these two factors, the author gave us the conclusion that the increased levels of melatonin be for birth cause shyness during infancy. What's more, he/she also implied that the shyness would continue into later life. It seems to be a reasonable inference, but when we re-consider the causes and the conclusions, it will be totally in rational anywhere. Let's look at the text again following the author's logic.

Firstly, only by a research which was researched thirteen years ago about only 25 infants, the little link with the time they were conceived, and the feature melatonin had, the author had the conclusion that these things has connection that it was because of the increased levels of melatonin before birth that cause shyness during infancy. We could have the suspicion that only 25 cases could not represent the most infants for it is likely that almost all of the infants would have big reflection when they are stimulated, or the research was happened to gather the infants who were mostly be conceived in early autumn. There's no proof that the infants who were conceived in early autumn could have mild distress more than which were not. Moreover, even thought the infants are all conceived in early autumn, there’s no evident show they have relation to melatonin. It could be other hormone's influence. Thus, only because of some phenomenon which was happened in the same time saying that they have causality is arbitrary.

Even though it is the melatonin that makes the infants showing the signs of mild distress, the conclusion that the shyness continues into later life could not be justifiable for the author's evident can only be that more than half these children had shown sign of distress identified themselves as shy in thirteen, earlier this year. Only half of the shyness had left, not mention that were described by the children themselves. The cause of the shyness may not be the melatonin but could be some other reasons for example the education, the experience, the surroundings, and the living condition and so on. It is also possible that the children cannot figure out whether they were shy or not for they are only 13 years old. With considering these reasons, the conclusion cannot be reached that this shyness would continue into later life could not be sure.

The author's inference could not be accept unless he/she have more researches which including more infants in the same condition, the powerful evidence which shows the relation between the mild distress and the melatonin, and the experts who can tell the shyness professional.