17号考试，argument20，求狠拍

shine198827UID: 3004464

[td]A20：The  following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.  “The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer  months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians,  the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by  each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day  to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals,  the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped  accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau,  when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."[/td]
In this letter, the arguer recommends thatthere should be a limitation of mopeds rent in Balmer Island. In order tosupport this suggestion, he indicates that the population of Balmer Islandincreases, and he also refers to a successful example that after limiting thenumber of rental mopeds, the moped accidents decrease 50% in Torseau. At firstglance, this argument seems so what convincing. However, a scrutiny of theevidences reveals that the argument lacks some important information whichshould have been addressed. From logical prospect, this argument suffers from 4logical flaws.
The threshold problem is that the arguerbuilds a cause-and-effect relationship between the number of mopes andaccidents. He also implies that with an increase of population, the number ofaccidents will increase. But common sense tells us that a myriad of factor willcontribute to an increase of accident. For example, lack of or improperly useof transportation facilities, such as traffic light, pedestrians' roads, canlead to an increase of accidents. Moreover, a great many of accidents resultfrom awareness of safety, maybe Balmer Island should pay more attention onsafety education.
Secondly, even if an increase of accidentis caused by the number of mopes, it may be not caused by the rental bicycle.The author fails to offer the number of mopes in Balmer Island. Perhaps bicycleis the main transportation in Balmer, and the rental mopes only take a tinypart of the whole mopeds in Balmer. A limitation of mopeds rent won't help toreduce accidents.
Thirdly, the arguer constructs a pooranalogy between Balmer and Torseau, without considering the background andrealistic situation of both place, the arguer hardly concludes that Balmershould follow Torseau's measures. Perhaps, the rental mopeds in Torseau have abad quality; additionally, the local people in Torseau rarely use mopeds, andall the mopeds accidents are caused by rental mopes.
To sum up, the arguer fails to substantiatethat the town council should limit the number of rental mopes, because theevidences aren't able to lend a support to what the arguer maintains. To makethe argument more convincing, the arguer would have to make a detail analysisof accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians in Balmer Island, which will helpthe town council, find the corner stone. He also would have to get a wholepicture of mopeds market in Balmer, and to know what the percentage the rentalmopes take. Additionally, to make Torseau as a model for Balmer to emulate, thearguer would have to concern more similarities and differences between thesetwo places. If this argument have had include the given discuss above, it wouldhave be more thoroughly and logically acceptable.

aloner001UID: 2935554

4logic flaws 怎么后面是三段？