[风雨与共] Argument习作 Argument 38 by【7】

shawn_pysUID: 2770388

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
重写的，大家给点意见~

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 359(507)          TIME: 00:45:00+30:00          DATE: 2011/2/10 18:44:20

From this article I can see no feasibility in such a recommendation that take daily Ichthaid can effectively reduce absenteeism in schools and workplaces.

On the first place, the author conclude that people in nearby East Meria(EM) have a lower rate catching colds.  However, the author only gave out a meaningless proof that people in EM visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds.  The author hasn't provided any comparative data in order to testify such a rate is actually below the average level.  Perhaps, such a frequency of visiting doctor is just the average level, or even much higher.  Moreover, maybe there are some special reasons that make residents in EM seldom turn for the doctors' help though have catch colds.  The author also hasn't ruled out such a possibility.  Therefore the author cannot convincingly draw the claim that people in EM catch fewer colds.

Even though assuming that people in EM do seldom catch colds, his assumption that this result is caused by the fact that in EM fish consumption is very high is unwarranted.  Firstly, as the author view, high fish consumption means people in EM eating a lot of fish in daily life.  However, this is an unfairly deduction.  It's entirely possible that people in EM using most fish to produce other products with a higher value, such as the author mentioned Ichthaid, a supplement derived from fish oil which will probably consume large amounts of fish, is a fair good example.  If this is the case, it will be easy to understand why the author took the EM as an example to advertising his product Ichthaid, and the premise of the author's recommendation will be radically undermined.

Secondly, the author didn't provide other information about characters of EM and its people.  Maybe, the result that people in EM is more robust and healthy and don't easily catch colds, is attributed to some other reasons rather than the reason, frequent eating of fish given by the author.  For instance, EM maybe a village and therefore, the life in EM is not so busy as in some metropolitan, and there are no so many cars as well, so that the quality of environment in EM might be very high, and people in EM also have more leisure time to do exercises.  These reasons will significantly contribute to a healthier body and lower rate of catching colds, judging by our common sense.  Lacking more specific information about how EM and its people are, it is impossible to assess the reliability of the study's results or to make an informed recommendation.

Finally, but not least, although eat frequently fish can substantiate health, the author provide no evidence that the Ichthaid have the same effectiveness as well.  So that, although all of the conclusions discussed above are true, the author's recommendation at last is inconvincible.

To sum up, the author hasn’t convincingly drawn the recommendation that the daily use of Ichthaid is a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.