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发表于 2011-2-12 11:34:56 |显示全部楼层

题目：ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
字数：350       用时：00:30:00       日期：2011/2/12 10:42:34

The argument above presents a sound case for arguing that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramaically in the next few months. Through a recent survey about what a video game is the favor of customers, the author cannot reasonablely get his conclusion since several flaws in it.

First of all, it is highly suspect the vaildity of the survey. To be a sufficient evidence supporting the conclusion, we should make cetain that whether the subjects involved are fully representive of overgroup of video-game players. In general, a valid survey need a lager amount of subjects from different regions , ages, sex even positions in the society.  However, the author provide nothing concerns these necessary informations, so I'm afraid the survey cited by the author lend little support to his claim.

Even assuming the survey is valid enough to support the author's claim, the arguer offers none evidence about the up-to-date computers, which the author emphasize, is equiped in their company. For that matter, the most important features, lifelike graphics, might not meeting the players' demand. Therefore there is no guarantee that these new games are introduced by  up-to-date computers, and might appears a poor sales in the furture.

Granted that the players are satisfid with the graphics of these video games, the author ingores a key point in his project. Could the people at 10 to 25 years old afford these games? It is highly possible that so much commercia advertising campaign and expense of producting cost a lot, therefore lead to a very high price of the games.Without rolling out this and other possiblitis, the author's assumption that the sales of Whirlwind video games would increase result from these potential customers at this age range.

It is entirely understandable for the company  finding ways to earn profits. But before any decision has been made, a second consideration with rational analysis, survey and evaluation is needed to see whether the sales of those new games could increase dramatically in the next few months.