Argument 78 第一次写啊~求拍

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3月就要考机考了，表示到现在这才写第一篇AW，压力很大，求拍


TOPIC: ARGUMENT78 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of an archaeological magazine.
"Archaeologists excavated a cave that had been inhabited by prehistoric people for thousands of years. These people hunted wild animals, many of whose bones were found at levels corresponding to different times of habitation. Most of the bones at the oldest levels, over 40,000 years old, were from a deer species whose modern-day descendants are known to prefer woodland habitats, whereas most of the bones at more recent levels, dating from 30,000 to 10,000 years ago, were from a gazelle species whose modern-day descendants are known to prefer grasslands. We can thus conclude that the climate of the area changed dramatically between 40,000 and 30,000 years ago, causing the terrain to change from woodland to grassland."






In this argument, the author cites various evidence to justify the claim that the climate significantly changed between 40000 and 30000 years ago leading to the area to change from woodland to grassland. To support his conclusion, the author points out that archaeologist finded some bones which were found at levels corresponding todifferent tomes of habitation. In addition, the author reasons that the bones of a deer and a gazelle  and thier descendants' preference indicates climate's change. At first glance, the author's claim appears to be somehow appealing. Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the conclusion on several grounds.
    To begin with, the evidence that the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn from it. One cave is rarely sufficient to establish a general conclusion. Unless it can be shown that this cave is representative of all the caves in that area, the conclusion is completely unwarranted. Besides, there is no evidence showing what size is the cave.
    Another point worth considering is that the author fails to take into account other facts that might contribute to the result that deer and gazelle appears in different times bacause of climate changes. It is entirely possible that the habits of  deer and gazelle has changed ,totally different from thousands of years. It is also likely that the same species live in different surroudings. For instance, elephants live both in tropic jungle and tropic grassland, so that there is no garantee that living conditon is same as before. Since the author has failed to consider and rule out these possibilities, tha author's assertion that climate changed causing the terrain's change cannot be taken seriously.
    Even if the spcies is different in two period,  it cannot be result from climate. For that matter, on one hand, the author ignores the possibility that human beings' behaviors are responsible for it.  on the other hand, perhaps the plants is having revolution. Given these possible scenarios, the fact that species' difference proves nothing about climate.
    In conclusion, the argument relies on certain doubtful assumption that render unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the author must convince me that the sample is representative of the overall caves. In addition, the author could have to provide more information about the habit of deer and gazelle have not changed, and same species like to live in resemble place.

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