high frequency Argument No. 126 (Ask for help on revision)

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126

The following  appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal. "Arctic deer live on  islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice  from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited  to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold  enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating  the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to  reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these  reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea  ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is  the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns  across the frozen sea."

The editorial concludes that population ofarctic deer decrease, reported by local hunters, results from global warmingand the fact that the deer need the frozen sea to migrate from one island toanother. Although this conclusion seems plausible at a first glance, it is notsoundly established in a variety of aspects after a close scrutiny .
Firstly, this argument is based on apotential flawed statistics of the deer decline. The reporters, as informed inthe passage, are local hunters. As we know that to conduct a well statistics,the conductors should master things like, correct statistical techniques,insightful observation as well as long-term patience, which a general hunter would never possess. It is highly possible that thehunters merely make some simplistic judgements based on their experience of thedeer population. However, after years hunting, the deers become clever enoughto leave away from the stubborn hunters and may already stay in a safer placeenjoying their lives. After all, the hunters would not like the professionalstatisticians who never publish a data for deer population to public until theycheck throughly any places deers could live in, no matter how peril and remotewhere they are.
Secondly, even the report by the hunters isabsolutely correct, the evidence that the global warming causes the deersdecline is not complete. For one thing, it is obviously wrong that the globalwarming has already comes to the extent that leads to the diminish of frozensea. If we admit that current weather is get warmer, although even for thisthere are still much disputation samong academics (that is not an issue forthis essay), we should also admit that the temperature currently just rise upless than 1 or 2 centigrades, which of course wouldn't melt the arctic sea.Thus, it can safely draw the conclusion that the deers can still migratethrough the freezing sea if they wish. For another thing, that is the warmerclimate, as the writer said, is another factor can help the deer live better.Since warmer weather can provide a better condition for arctic plants to growup, on which the deer feed. Therefore it is equally possible that the arcticdeers increases by those abundant plants and under the much better weather.
Finally, a single factor, that is thewarmer weather, even is right again, there are still a multitude of otheralternative reasons explaining the decine of the deers. For example, thepollution for modern industrilization and excessive hunting of hunters referredbefore as well as the increase of extraneous aggressive species has equal greatinfluence on arctic deers' decline. If the arguer cannot ruling out all thepossibilities trustworthily, the conclusion that the worldwide warming is thecrimer of the decrease of deer's population is logically fallacious.
To sum up, the conclusion presented here ismerely based on several untenable supports.In oder to improve its truthfulness, the arguer should show us direct evidencesthat relate the decline of the population to the increase of the our world'stemperature.