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很快就要上战场了,因为小组之间都没有磨合好所以也没有发挥到任何小组的效果,现在心里没有谱。希望所有的前人后人可以给我一点建议和意见,帮我修改一下,诚实地但是不打击的告诉我我的情况怎么样,让我心里有个底。我真的无限感激,祝你们RP暴涨!
TOPIC: ISSUE184 - "It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."
WORDS: 521 TIME: 00:41:36 DATE: 2011/3/4 10:18:41
Is it a mistake to give a theory without having any data at hand? I strongly agree with the statement. In my observation, the process of theorizing requires a large amount of information in order to guarantee the accuracy, which without data would be an ambiguous assumption.
Admittedly, there are times when a theory can be drawn without any actual numbers being provided. This is especially true when it comes to subjects in the humanities. Consider, how would any professor of philosophy or history research the theory of their fields by numbers? Most events are condensed into a theory by investigating the cause and effect relationship, which gives a moral lesson to all the students. For example, a historical theory that one can not rule without the support of his people. This theory is earned through learning historical mistakes made by the autocrats, and has been imparted to leaders after them.
However, theorizing is a process of reasoning and analysis, which would be unsubstantial without any data. Otherwise, the theory will come out as a false and unconvincing assumption. Though the events in the humanities often have no specific numbers, certain data in the form of words are given in order to make the theory believable. For example, a book collection of moral and ethnical theory in ancient China, the Analects, is written based on Confucius's observation on thousands of facts including the emperor's policies and the public's ideals. Only with these data, Confucius was able to make all the reasonable theories which have directly influenced all Chinese people even until modern time.
An even more important reason for my point lies in the fields of science and technology. In these areas, data plays an extremely important and unplaceable role. Almost all the progress made in the past are based on a series of accurate calculation and inspection. This is especially true in the field of physics. We all learn formulas, principles and theories from the textbook, for which the scientists have dedicated themselves to. The theory of gravity, for instance, come into existence only after a long-term, perhaps frustrating experiment and million times of failure and misunderstanding. Without any data, Newton won't become one of the famous scientists who has been praised for several centuries.
Nevertheless, with only data provided, it's unsafe and unrealistic to give any theorization. Data itself can be misleading, if rooted reasons and effects of the incidents are not investigated. Moreover, it's the data that makes the theory logical. To rationally conduct a theory, one must combine efficient data with analysis and contemplatation of the situation. In other words, without the help of experts' intelligence and knowledge, raw facts and numbers can not lead to any logical theories.
To sum up, it is indeed a grave mistake if one tends to make any theory without any data given, especially in the fields where accurate process of calculation and exploration is required. However, one should not judge that data is the only determinant to give a theory. In my final analysis, data should be combined with rational study in order to grant the credibility of a theory. |
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