应大家要求贴习作AW4……Agrue

wenyanmomoUID: 2678798

这是我的第一篇。。开始才276字~~所以大家要有信心~加油！







TOPIC: ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in amemorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of storesselling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our storesare most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leadinghealthy lives. We should therefore build our next newstore in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsvillemerchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are atall-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago dueto lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training andaerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation ofcustomers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exerciseat an early age."
WORDS: 276
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE:2010-3-31 0:03:23(实际用时：45mins)
489words

The president states that in order to make moreprofits, a new store should be built in Plainsville(P), where is believed hasmany residents concerning on healthy lives. To supportthe assertion above, the president cites the facts as followings :(1)Sportswear are sold well in P.(2)The local health club is popular among theresidents.(3)P's school children are required to take part in a fitness program. However, after careful scrutiny, none of the facts above canlend credible support to the recommendation.


On the one hand, the president mistakenly considersthat people who are highly concerned with leading healthy lives will surely buythe products of Nature’s Way. However, a healthy lifestyle may be attained inseveral ways besides buying healthy-related products, for instance, simplydrink more water per day, keep early hours and do some sports. All of themcontribute to a healthy lifestyle. In addition, the president neglects thepossible competition among the similar companies--people may prefer theproducts of other companies to that of Nature’s Way’s. In short, a healthylifestyle is not a good indication of an increasing profit of the company.

On the other hand, the president fails to providesufficient evidence to demonstrate that residents in P are highly concernedwith leading healthy lives.

First, the salable running shoes and exercise clothing may not indicatethat people are interested in healthy lifestyle. It is possible that peoplebuying sportswear is only because their fashionable design and style. It isalso possible that people are only get accustomed with the sportswear. So onlybased on the sales of sportswear, we cannot get the conclusion that peoplethere are interested in sports or a healthy lifestyle.

Second, the number of people who joined in the healthyclub or some certain classes also may not indicate that people prefer a healthylifestyle. The circumstance of a single club may not be representative of theoverall clubs. Maybe other clubs in this area are still suffering with lack of business.The president should make out the percentage of people going to the club and ifit is representative of all residents there.

Third, students there may be forced to take part inthe program, so we cannot conclude that students in the program love exerciseor a healthy lifestyle. In addition, the assumption that the fit program canprovide the Natural’s Way a new generation of customers is unwarranted, becausethe president neglects the fact that there may be a great change during theseyears until their grown up.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincingas it stands. To strengthen it, the president must show that residentshere have a real interest in sports or healthy lifestyle. Also, the presentshould take into account that if residents in P would like to buy healthrelated products produced by Natural’s Way. Maybe a well designed survey couldhelp the president to take all factors intoconsideration about the investment.

wenyanmomoUID: 2678798

ARGUMENT7 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.

"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."

Word：392

In this argument, the author suggests that in order to solve the environmental problems in Clearview (C), residents should vote for Ann Green (AG) rather than Frank Braun (FB). To support the conclusion, the author cites the fact that during the past year, the number of factories in C has doubled and local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illness. However, these evident are insufficient to demonstrate the environment in C is really contaminated. Also, the suggestion made by the author is too haste to take other aspects into consideration.

First, the number of factories cannot be a strong evidence to demonstrate if the environment in C is harmed. The author fails to inform us the total amount of factories there, so it is possible that there are only one or two factories. If so, though the number of the factories is doubled during the past year, the total number of them is too limited to affect the environment. Also, the author does not tell us the basic information of the newly opened factories. Maybe they are non-staining factories, such as some food-making factory and clothes-making factory.

Second, the number of patient suffered from respiration illness also cannot indicate the environment in C is polluted. Many other factors may lead to this disease. Perhaps the weather changed a lot during the last year, or perhaps this is a period which many people are allergic to some pollen in the air. Also, we need to know the condition of other places. It is possible that the rate of people who suffer from respiratory disease is high in other places as well. Without excluding these factors, the author cannot hastily get the conclusion that it is the pollution of the environment caused the disease.

Third, granted that the environment in C is indeed needed to be improved, voting for AG may not a good choice. The author unfairly thought that FB is not protecting our environment because of other member in the council are not. In addition, though AG is a member of Good Earth Coalition, it is insufficient to follow that he or she will love to protect our environment. When we vote for a mayor, we should take every aspect into consideration, such his or her ability to cooperate.

In conclusion, the argument is unwarranted as it stands. To strengthen it, the author should provide us other information to demonstrate the environment in C is really harmed and AG is really superior to FB as a mayor.

(2010-4-10 10:29:06)

wenyanmomoUID: 2678798

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
WORDS: 338          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-4-8 1:36:43  455

In this memo, the author concludes that the Great Thumb Gardening Center (GTGC) can increase their profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetables seeds they stock for gardeners this coming spring. To support the assertion, the author cites a national survey and the sales of a gardening magazine as the evidence to demonstrate that consumers are more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. However, after careful scrutiny, none of the facts above can lend credible support to the recommendation.

Firstly, the result of a national survey may not well represent the circumstance of a suburban town. The author fails to provide any information about where the survey was done. So it is entirely possible that the survey is conducted in a big city, the vegetables convey to where need much time. So, maybe it is this reason that makes the vegetables stale. From this perspective, the suburban town may not suffer from the same situation as the survey appeals.

Secondly, the great sales of Great Gardens (GG) cannot reveals that people are more interested in growing their own vegetables. The author does not tell us the total amount of GG that were sold. Perhaps the amount of books is very limited so that it can be sold out very quickly. Besides, the author also overlooks the content of the magazine, maybe it has no information on growing vegetables, In short, the sales of GG is insufficient to demonstrate the  preference of people to growing vegetables themselves.
Thirdly, granted that people in this town are really unsatisfied with the vegetables and interested in growing their own vegetables, there is no guarantee that they will take it into action. Because growing vegetables will cost people large amount of time and energy, people there may buy vegetables in special produce market or vegetable stands rather to grow themselves’.

At last, the author fails to convince me that for people who would like to grow their vegetables will buy seeds in GTGC, maybe there are many other companies also can provide people with seeds. Also, the author’s suggestion that we the GTGC should expand the variety of vegetable seed is unwarranted. Perhaps some kind of seeds is not favorable among people or not easily stored. So without the further information about the condition of other companies and a survey of the people’s preference, the author cannot safely draw the conclusion that the company will increase its profits.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must provide more evidence to demonstrate that the result of the survey can represent the circumstance of this town. Also, the author should take every aspect into consideration to increase the profits of the company.

wenyanmomoUID: 2678798

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS: 449          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-4-14 15:16:58   total: 514

In this argument, the author concludes that the number of mopeds rentals in Balmer (B) Island should be limited in order to reduce the number of accidents. To support his assertion, the author cites the facts that the neighboring Island of Torseau(T), attained a 50 percent reduction of accidents after it enforced similar limits on moped rentals. The argument is at first glance reasonable. However, after careful scrutiny, none of the facts above can lend credible support to the recommendation.

First, the author failed to inform us that if these mopeds are all borrowed from the companies or what fraction of these mopeds is borrowed from the companies. Without this information, it is entirely possible that most of the mopeds are belong to people's own. In this case, even if all these six companies really limit their number of mopeds rentals, it cannot guarantee the falling number of the mopeds on the road. Also, the accident rate will not drop significantly.

Second, the author also fails to provide us any information of the current number of mopeds lent in these companies, so the assertion that all these six companied must reduce the number from 50 per day to 30 per day is unwarranted. Perhaps for some small companies, the total number of their rentals per day is actually below 30, so even if the limitation is carried out, it cannot work efficiently to reduce the number of the mopeds on the road.

Third, the author unfairly assumes that it is the limitation in T Island that contributes to its lower accident rate. In order to convince me, the author should make out that if other methods are taken place in T Island such as the improvement of the roads or some other strategies. It is also possible that the total number of people riding is decreasing during the last year in T Island, or the weather in T Island was not suitable for people to ride. Thus before exclude these possibilities, the author cannot draw the conclusion that the limitation is effective in T island.

At last, granted that the limitation in T Island is really effective, it may not receive the same successful result in B Island. There may have many differences between these two islands. For instance: the road condition, the size of the island, the total population and the proportion of people who often ride in the island. All these aspect can make the result rather different. Thus, lacking reliable evidence that B Island is comparable to T Inland, it is different to accept the conclusion that B Island will have fewer accidents after the limitation of mopeds rentals.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To better support it, the author should make out the percentage of mopeds which are borrowed from the companies. Also, the author should provide us the basic information about these six companies. At last, the author should make out if it is the limitation that made T Island’s accident rate fall and if B island is comparable to T island in every aspect.

wenyanmomoUID: 2678798

TOPIC: ARGUMENT25 - The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
WORDS: 351          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-4-12 19:23:45

In this memo, the mayor suggests that in order to improve Hopewell's economy, and general additional revenues, a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View(OW) should be build. To support his conclusion, the mayor cites the facts that Ocean View enjoyed an increase in tourism, many new opened businesses and risen tax revenues after the golf course and resort hotel were built. However, the mayor's evidence are insufficient to support his or her conclusion as the following discussed.

First, the mayor provides no evidence to demonstrate that it is the golf course and resort hotel that made the economy in OW prosperous, including the increasing tourism, new opened businesses and risen tax revenues. It is quite possible that during these two years, people’s average income increases and consumes more than the previous years. Or perhaps there are some newly founded museums and historical sites there that attract more tourism. So without ruling out these possible factors, the author cannot safely draw the conclusion that the prosperous of OW is due to the golf course and resort hotel.

Second, granted that it is the golf course and hotel that made the economy of OW prosperous, the mayor unfairly considers that if H will prosperous in economy if it do the same as what OW has done, because there may have many differences between OW and H, such as the average income of its residents, the climate and also the fundamental state of these cities. It is likely that the residents in H cannot afford to go play golf or have meals in hotel. In addition, maybe the OW is a city which has the moderate weather and a fantastic beach for people to spend their holidays while the city H is one full of industries and the environment of which is contaminated seriously. Without excluding above possibilities, the same result may not appear in H.

Also, the mayor neglects the possible changes in the past two years. Maybe during these two years, golf and hotel are not as popular as two years ago. People may prefer other kind of sports. So the mayor should take every aspect into consideration to get to the conclusion that we need to follow the experience of OW.

At last, the mayor neglects many other possible ways to improve H's economy and generate additional tax revenues. So the mayor should not only imitate what the other city do, but to think carefully and make out the best strategies which are fit for H such as the investment on some factories, education rather than the tourism.

In conclusion, the argument is insufficient as it stands. To strengthen it, the mayor must make out the fact that if the new golf course and the hotel that improved OW's economy. In addition, the author must guarantee that the same result would occur if we H do the same as what OW had done. At last, the mayor should consider other possible solutions to improve the economy in H.

wenyanmomoUID: 2678798

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 393          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-4-15 15:00:51   440

In this argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support the assertion, the author cites the facts that some hunters reported the declining number of arctic deer and the global warming trends that cause the sea ice to melt. However, after careful scrutiny, none of these facts can well support what the author concludes.

First, based on several hunters’ reports, the author concludes that the number of the arctic deer is indeed decreasing. However, the accuracy of the report is open to doubt. Without providing the further information about how many days did their research last and the area their research covered, it is entirely possible that they only researched for a few days or only covered a small place. Also, we do not know how many hunters took part in the research and if the hunters are forthright in the research. Without providing such information about the precise of the reports, the author can not safely draw the conclusion that the number of deer is decreasing.

Second, granted that the number of arctic deer is indeed decreased, the author unfairly assumes that it is the global warming, which cause the sea ices melt, that contribute to the decreased number of deer. On one hand, the author does not provide us any information about the ice condition in the Canada's arctic region. So even if the high temperature indeed leads ice melt in some region, we cannot safely draw the conclusion that ice in this region is melt as well. On the other hand, granted that the ice in this region is melt, there are no direct evidence provided to show that the melt ice lead the deer unable to follow their age-old migration patterns. Perhaps they can reach their destination by another route which people do not know yet.

Thirdly, the author neglects other possibilities which will also contribute to the declination of the arctic deer. Such possibilities includes: the lack of food, the hunting by human beings as well as the natural evolution process. So without excluding these possibilities, the author cannot convince me that the decreasing number of deer is caused by the increasing temperature.

In short, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To better support it, the author should make out if the report provided by the hunters is precise. Also, the author should take every possibility into consideration before he gets to the conclusion that it is the melting ice that contributes to the declination in the number of the arctic deer.

wenyanmomoUID: 2678798

TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.

"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
WORDS: 252          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-3-29 21:41:18

The author states that the recuperation time of patients who use antibiotics are 40 percent quicker than the patients who use sugar pills when treating muscle injuries by two doctors. So, the author concludes that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment. However, from the evidence and the experiment mentioned in the passage, we cannot hastily get to the conclusion.

To begin with, the result from the experiment may not be reliable, because the author does not inform us the number of patients taking part in the experiment. If there are only a few patients, maybe they are not representative. In addition, we do not know the basic information of the patients in both groups. Such as their age, gender as well as the severity of their muscle strain. Maybe the average age of the first group is lower than that of the second group, so we can conjecture that their recovering ability is better .Also, the author does not tell us that if the severity of muscle strain in the two groups are at the same level. If the patients in the first group are slightly hurt rather than the severe hurt in the second group, we cannot say that it is antibiotic that makes the recovery more quickly.

Granted that the patients in the two groups are all at the same age and have the same severity of muscle hurt, still, we cannot get to the conclusion of what the author states, because the experiments are held by two different doctors: Doctor Newland who is specialized in sport medicine and doctor Altan, a general physician. We are not informed the basic information about the two doctors. Common sense tells me that the quality of the doctor: their experience, responsibility, method of treating and etc, can affect the result of the experiment while the author failed to mention all of above. In short, the author should offer some more information about the two doctors to ensure all the conditions are the same except the use of antibiotics.

Also, the author’s conclusion that all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain should take antibiotics is too rash. From the very beginning of the article, the author states that secondary infection may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. However, the author neglects the fact that patients who have muscle strain is not necessarily getting the secondary infections, besides, the fact that patients are all get severe muscle strain is open to doubt. In addition, we should know that if antibiotic has any side effect that can prevent the widely use of it such as allergic and headache.

In conclusion, the author failed to provide us sufficient evidence to demonstrate that it is the antibiotics makes the difference of the two groups of patients and all patients with muscle strain need take antibiotics. To make the statement more persuasive, the author should make out the basic conditions of both the patients and the doctors. At the same time, the author should make out that if there are other reasons making the second group recovering slower than the first and if the antibiotics have any side effects.

wenyanmomoUID: 2678798

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 340          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-4-4 0:30:42(444)

The author in the argument concludes that increased levels of melatonin (M) before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness will continues into later life. To support the conclusion, the author cites the fact that infant born in autumn when their mothers' production of M is high are showing signs of distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. In addition, a follow-up study showed that most of the infants identify themselves as shy after their grownup. However, as the following discussion shows, the argument is not well supported by these evidence.

First, the research done thirteen years ago might not be convincing. The number of infants in the research is too limited so that it cannot be representative of the overall condition of infants. Besides, the author failed to establish a causal relationship between M and the mild distress of infants. It is stated that M can affect some brain functions, however, no evidence demonstrates that depress among the infants are caused by the effect of their brain. It is possible that all the infants will show a mild depress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli, so the research would be more compelling when including a comparison group of infants who are not born in autumn and see if they are also feel depressed when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli.

Second, the result of the follow-up study is also unconvincing. On the one hand, because the sample is too limited, even if all of the teenagers identified themselves as shy, we cannot get to the conclusion that M can result in the shyness later in their life, not to mention the fact that not all of them identified so. On the other hand, each person will has his or her own definition of the word 'shy', so only based on the feeling of the teenagers themselves may not be precise. The author should study this issue through a more scientific way.

Granted that most of the teenagers are shy, it is also unwarranted to say that the shyness is result from M. The author neglects other possible factors that can also affect one’s characteristics, such as the growth environment of these children, the genetic impacts and etc. Without excluding these factors, we cannot hastily to say that it is M that leads to the shyness of these teenagers.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author should make out that if there are other factors can lead infants to feel depressed and whether they are really shy after their grown up. Also, the author should take all other aspects into account which can also lead teenagers shy after their grownup.

wenyanmomoUID: 2678798

TOPIC: ARGUMENT169 - The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University.

"Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers."
WORDS: 356          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2010-4-5 21:44:52   (413)

The author states that in order to attract more gifted professors and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce (P) University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. To support this recommendation, the author cites a study done by Bronston (B) University which concluded that professors are happier living in small town when their spouses are employed in the same geographic area. However, as the following discussion shows, the author’s argument is not well supported by the evidence.

First, the circumstance between the small towns which B University located and that of P University may be quite different. So the study done by BC may not well reflect the situations of B. It is entirely possible that B is a more developed town with convenient traffic network, and harmonious environment. So it is quite possible that it is these characteristics of B Town that attract more professors but not the work offered to their spouse. Without ruling out all these possibilities, the author should not hastily take any actions.

Second, the author unfairly assumes that only by offering job, P University can attract more gifted professors. Common sense tells me that when people choosing a job, s/he will take every aspect into consideration, such as the salary, the fame of the university and the facilities in the university. All mentioned above can affect a person’s choice of a ideal job. So, the author should take other aspects into consideration to make sure that PU can attract more professors.

Third, the author failed to consider the ability of the P University that if it can offer jobs to all the professors' spouses. We do not know the total number of professors that would love to enter PU, so, perhaps there are a large number of them. Thus, I am afraid that there will not have enough operating posts for them.

At last, the author neglects the negative effects of taking such policy. We do not know any information about the professors' spouses, such as their age and education background. It is possible that some spouses will bring troubles to the university and it is difficult to well manage them.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To better support it, the author should make out if the two universities are comparable. Also, the author should make out that if offering jobs is enough to hire more gifted professors.