a51，大帮忙给估个分

ShaneYehUID: 2847226

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."




In this memo the vice president of Nature's Way(NW)----a chain stores of selling health food and other health-related products----recommends that NW should build their next new store in Plainsville because there are many residents which are NW's target customers who care about healthy lifestyle.To support this recommendation the vice president cites a report of Painesville merchant's sales record in running shoes and exercise clothing which shows the demand of these are at all-time hights,and furthermore,the local health club which has nearly been forced to closed five years ago now becomes more popular than ever.The vice president also points out that the schoolchildren who required to participate a fitness program will be a new generation of NW's customers.This argument suffers from several critical flaws and is therefore un convincing as it stands.

To begin with, the vice president unfairly assumes that the Painesville residents are interested in exercising----according to the high sales of running shoes and exercise clothing----and therefore,would certainly be interested in NW's products.But there is no such evidence in the argument to support this assumption,even no such indication to justified that the Painesville residents are
interested in exercise,perhaps the high sales are due to tourists rather than Painesville residents.Even if the resdients do crazy about exercise,no one can tell this phenomenon would last how long,perhaps just happens to be fashionable at the monent.And they also can buy other merchants' products which are similar to NW. In short, without ruling out other possible reasons for the high sales and the other merchants' information the vice president cannot convince me on the basis of them that residents of Plainview are exercise more often and would prefer NW's products to other merchants'.

Secondly,the vice president provides an example about a local health club which nearly been forced to close five years ago now becomes popular to indicate that healthy lifestyle is that Plainview resdients concerned.But drawing a conclusion just on this example is unwarranted.Perhaps during the five years,the keeper of the health club reduce its' scale in order to maintain the business,and now because of the downsizing the classes are finally full.Besides,even if the health club does become popular it doesn't means the products of NW will also become popular among the residents.Oppositely,if residents do participated in some classes of health club frequently would may already lived in a healthy way and they are likely to have no
more need for the healthy products.

Finally,the fact that the schoolchildren who required to exercise at an early age will be a new generation of customers accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the recommendation.There contains no evidence to justified that these children will interested in excercise,they just be forced to participated in this program which they may consider it as meaninglessness. Moreover,it will take many years for these children to be old enough to decide what kind of life to live in,by then,the fashionable maybe have change to a unhealthy lifestyle when the NW's products will lose it's market for sure.Becides,if the fashionable is still unchangeable----living in a healthy way----many years later,but those children who do exercise regularly since they are little may healthy enough to take another products to make them healthier.
So the assumption that schoolchildren will become a new group of customers lend less credible to the recommendation.

To sum up,the recommendation of the vice president is unconvincing as it stands.To bolster the recommendation the vice president must provide more effective evidence----perhaps by a way of a local survey or study----that how much percent of Plainview
residents are actually interested in exercises,and the reason for the health club full of member is not just the reducing of the scale.To better convincing me i would need to know the attitude of Plainview residents for the NW products,and I also need to know the competition NW might face in Plainview.






还有一周考试，本人惭愧，这才是第一篇A，欢迎大家踊跃批评，给估个分...

ShaneYehUID: 2847226

没有人帮忙给改一下吗。。。给在美国的同学看了说写的一塌糊涂，但是他说他不知道考试的要求，所以还是希望G友们看一下