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本帖最后由 wywcgs 于 2011-8-8 19:36 编辑
164
A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. We therefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
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The evidence above seems to be persuasive at first glance. But in fact, the arguer should answer several essential questions to make it convincing.
First of all, is there much complain about the far distance of the nearest jazz club? The distance makes advantage to us only when jazz fans not want to go much further to listen jazz. In fact, the existence of jazz club may take disadvantage to us if few is not satisfied with its distance. One may prefer listening in the club with his best friends to enjoying the music himself with the ones they don't know in a new club.
Secondly, how many of fans attending jazz festival are the local resident of Monroe? The quantity of people in the festival can reveal less things than we expected, because there may be many fans come to attend the festival who living other places, who will probably not join our C Note. It is not a persuasive evidence even when the number of local fans is large enough, since local people may come to the festival just by curious but not favor.
Thirdly, how well the nationwide study reflects the condition in Monroe? People in Monroe may not be willing to pay as much money as in other cities. Obviously the arguer should get the data in Monroe to evaluate the prediction. Even the money spent on jazz in Monroe is appreciable, our club may not very hot. People may spend their money on the buying the disc but not joining the club.
Fourthly, what the effect the musicians make in the Monroe ? Musicians lives in Monroe may just because of beautiful environment or suitable climax or other reasons independent to music of Monroe. If they are not interested in publicizing the jazz music, there existence makes no advantage to our club.
The last one, how much the 'Jazz Nightly' listeners are willing to spend on jazz? As you know, listening the radio is free. There is a possibility that many of the listener don't have enough money to spend on the jazz. A survey is required to evaluate the price they can sustain. If their don't want to cost too much, obviously it is an unfortunate news to our club.
In conclusion, there is too many possibility in this prediction and we should find more convicing evidence to evaluate the feasibility of the C Note club. |
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