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"A jazz musicclub in Monroewould be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz clubis 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the localmarket all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazzmusicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide studyindicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazzentertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
Inthis argument, the arguer considers it remarkably profitable to open a new jazzmusic club in the city of Monroe. Based on several supporting factorsconcerning to what extent is jazz music popular among Monroe citizens. Whilethe whole argument seems logical, in reality, it suffers from critical flaws.
Through listing a number of seeminglysubstantiated deductions, the arguer makes an attempt to bolster hisconclusion. Unfortunately, each of them is based on certain gratuitousassumptions. Despite the great distance of the nearest jazz club from Monroe,it might be the case that this club offers great service and enjoys a long-timereputation, thus making it unnecessary for the newly-opened club to own itslocal market all to itself; granted that a large number of people join the jazzmusic festival last summer, they may be, in fact, forced to attend the activityby their local authorities while the rest of them are just visitors from othertowns, let alone the possibility that the popularity during last year may ceaseto continue in the future; while some famous jazz musicians choose Monroe astheir living place, what really attracts them may be the nice naturalenvironment or the low living expense in Monroe instead of its musicalatmosphere; similarly, perhaps the radio program 'Jazz Nightly' is one of thelimited programs provided in the evening, which is the only time for theresidents to relax after whole day's work, thus making the high ratingunreliable. Therefore, more information ought to be given to substantiate thecorrelation between the factors above and the popularity of jazz music inMonroe.
Even assuming people's enthusiasm for jazzmusic, the conclusion remains groundless. The arguer cites the result of aconcerning national study to support his notion, which leads to a misappliedgeneralization. While people in other cities may be willing to spent nearly $1000per year to satisfy their interest in jazz, it is entirely possible that thejazz fans in Monroe tend to enjoy jazz music by purchasing CDs or joining musicgroups organized by the community; or perhaps they would regard devoting theirmonkey to a music club as a kind of luxury. Without accounting for all thepossibilities, the arguer cannot simply assume that what is true of the nationas a whole is also true of a particular city.
Moreover,practically speaking, the arguer fails to take into account to real scale ofthe market, hence making the profitability open to doubt. Perhaps this area issuffering from economic depression or unemployment these years. Since most ofthe residents are faced with the pressure to raise their family and seek for anideal job, it is unlikely for them to spare time and money to such music clubs;or perhaps seniors jazz fans, those tend to have kind of prejudice on prematuremusic clubs, consists a large part of the whole group. For that matter, the newclub, without the support from the majority, may fail to appeal enough gueststo maintain its long-term existence.
The arguer appears to be quite confident inthe profitability of opening a new jazz music club in Monroe. Lack of reasonableevidence, however, weakens the deductions raised by the arguer and makes thewhole argument unpersuasive. To solidify his notion, he is required to put moreemphasis on the justifiable relationship between the listed facts and theirindication of the popularity. Also, to avoid a false confidence, the arguershould carefully examine detailed information about the jazz-music market inMonroe before jumping to the conclusion. |
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