我的第一篇 agrument60

普普陶UID: 3266670

第一次写~请大家赏脸帮忙改下。。我也是3.31的苦逼战士。。准备的太匆忙了~
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
　　"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
　　Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.




The letter suggests an investment for Consolidated Industries whose major business operation is the retail of heating oil due to the residents’ conventional wont to keep warm using heating oil in the northeastern United States; the abnormal cold weather will endure for a long time and oil’s increasing demanding attribute to immigrate. From all these reasons, on account of the advisor’s reasoning building the conclusion in some assumptions, I find it specious in some aspects and hold a skeptical attitude towards it.

The threshold problem is that the advisor just presumes dwells’ traditional habits using heating oil would remain unchanged with time pass by. However, it is not necessarily the case to keep everything invariant. Indeed, many disparate circumstances may happen as the time goes on. For example, the residents have been using other heating materials like the crops or the heating machine which could not only be much cheaper than oil but also a higher utilized rate. Or maybe oil still play a role in heating house but has been underplayed its importance owe to other available heating source, like heating installations’ pervasion. There is no doubt that the requirement of oil would be largely influenced by both cases and thereby influence the benefit of industries. Without verifying the present conditions about the city, the advisor could not manifest the conclusion's advance.


Meanwhile, the advisor just come up the suggestion stand in the extrapolation that the heating season in the northeastern Unit States was definitely shorter than ninety days and the below-normal temperature was actual much lower than normal so that these two. Nevertheless, is the ninety days during last heating season a longtime compared with past years? And what is the meaning of below-normal temperatures, to which degree did it drop? If the facts illustrate that ninety days heating season was just half of past years’ and the temperature just reduce a bit, then probably the desire for increasing heating oil would not fluctuate in a large range. Lacking enough information to supply the weather’s situation in this district, I can not estimate the advice's application as well.

Furthermore, granted that many new comers would cause the higher demanding of heating oil and the presumption about weather and dwells’ using habit would propend to a positive way toward the advisor could definitely boost the demanding, it is not inevitable to possess generous remuneration by investing Consolidated Industries. As the advisor lists the Industries' major business operation is selling heating oil as a reason to assure high profit, whereas more information about the industries’ other service or project has not been offered yet. What about other projects in these industries? If other services were too poor to make ends meet, the profit can not be guaranteed. Another question is how much money will be required to build the industry? Due to the profit is the difference from gross and cost, too expensive the cost would also occlude its feasibility.

In light of above opinions, it is self-obvious that although constructing new industries would bring about benefit to some extent, this advice should not be embraced with whole arms before profound analysis. To better bolster the recommendation, many other messages should be provided, like how is the weather in the past ten or twenty years in the northeast United States, what are the materials the residents now using for heating house, and how about the industries' prospect. Being short of these answers, hardly could we make the most apropos decision.

vampireslgUID: 3187234

写得真好，Good luck