Arguement 3
The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.
"Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In this argument, the owner recommends to prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza and predict the prospect of business in the Plaza after the prohibition. Admittedly, skateboarding may cause problems without reasonable regulations, but the author not only unfairly assumes the increasing popularity of skateboarding as the only explanation for the decrease of shoppers and increase of litter and vandalism but also ignores the problems may cause after the prohibition. Naturally, the following questions are raised about the recommendation based on the previous assumptions.
The first question about the recommendation is the reasoning the writer has engaged in as “at the same time with this, therefore because of this”. The mere fact that less shoppers and more skateboarding players happens the same time is inadequate to conclude that the latter is the reason for the former. In all likelihood many other reasons could also bring about the same result. For example, the country is during economy depression and people has less income to go shopping or the population structure of that areas is changing; there are more and more young people, who prefers online shopping. It can also happen if there is a newly shopping mall opened close and the shoppers are split.
For the same reason, we can’t simple attribute the litter and vandalism problems to skateboarding. It may happen mainly because of the lack of management of the Building, in hence, which is probably the real reason for the decrease of shoppers in Center Plaza. A Plaza with fine management can result unpleasant shopping experiences, consequently drive the customers away.
Furthermore , the author tries to substantiate the recommendation by citing that many owners hold the same opinion. However, the statistical reliability is very questionable as the author provides no evidence to show the number of owners is statistically significant or that the shop owners are representative owners in Central Plaza in general. Moreover the author himself is a owner in the Plaza, which puts the neutrality of the survey on stake. Lacking information about the randomness and the size of survey, the author cannot make a convincing recommendation based on that.
Finally, the consequences of the author’s recommendation to inhibit skateboarding can be questionable and even counterproductive. The purpose of the author’s recommendation is to increase the number of shoppers of Centre Plaza. What if the skateboarding players are actually bringing shoppers to the Plaza? Actually, the players are at least potential shoppers themselves. In this case, if they are prohibited to the plaza, the Plaza will have even less shoppers, which runs just contrary to the author’s intention.
In summary, there are so many question the author needs to answer to make the recommendation convincing. To better support the commendation, the owner needs to rule out the other reasons that caused the shopper decrease, conduct a more reliable survey in the owners and take the possible consequences into consideration.
本人6月16日考试。。。
今天开始着急，这是写出来了第一篇arguement，未限时。
想请假各位大虾，我这样写出来的文章会不会模板的痕迹太严重，导致被e-rater直接弄掉？
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发表于 2012-6-5 22:43:34
发表于 2012-6-6 17:32:20
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