【GRE作文互助组】冬涧苦雪的作业帖---argue提纲

冬涧苦雪UID: 3277513

8月7日

19 Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly. Given WCQP's recent success with call-in advice programming, and citing a nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs, the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
                                                
逻辑链条：
1)  2年前R地的W电台增加call-in advice节目，从此R地有更多人收听W电台
2)  全国调查：许多听众喜欢此类节目
结论：M地K电台领导建议增加call-in节目，增加本地区收听听众

提纲：
首先，（因果）call节目与R电台的成功没有直接的因果关系。其他可能原因：别的节目/
其次，（调查）全国性的调查真实性强吗？是什么机构进行的？调查方法科学吗？数据模糊，很多不等于收听率，（整体局部）另外，全国调查不一定适用M
再次，（错误类比）适合R的节目就适合M地区吗，可能M地区多年轻人上班族，很少有时间听这种倾诉型节目。 即使听众爱听，不一定加入这个节目就增加收听率，主持水平如何？

20 The following is a memorandum from the business manager of a television station.
"Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increased time to national news and less time to weather and local news. During this time period, most of the complaints received from viewers were concerned with our station's coverage of weather and local news. In addition, local businesses that used to advertise during our late-night news program have just canceled their advertising contracts with us. Therefore, in order to attract more viewers to the program and to avoid losing any further advertising revenues, we should restore the time devoted to weather and local news to its former level."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
                                                

逻辑链条：
1) 去年，在晚间节目中加入更多国家新闻，减少天气预报和地区新闻。大多数的抱怨都是关注天气预报和地区新闻。
2) 晚间节目广告商撤资。
结论：为了吸引更多观众和广告费，应该将这两个节目回复到以往容量。

提纲：
首先，（数据模糊）大多数抱怨不代表大多数听众，应用听众比例。而且并没有标明观众人数下降，也许国家新闻吸引更多人。
其次：（因果）广告商撤资不一定因为节目调整，可能公司宣传策略改变，转向纸媒、电台等。或者是因为这个电视台整体效益不好，跟这个节目无关。
再次，不一定恢复，其他办法：加宣传，提升国内新闻质量。
21 The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
"Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research of mine proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is invalid and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid as well. The interview-centered method that my team of graduate students is currently using in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

链条：
1）20年前F走访T地，观察到T的孩子又全村抚养而非父母。得结论：
2）我最近采访包括T在内的群体里的孩子，他们更多时间谈到父母，而不是其他人。
结论：F结论是错的，观察法研究T村文化不适用。访谈法更精准地了解那的孩子抚养传统，以及其它岛的文化。
提纲：


首先：20年，T岛情况会有变化，从封闭到开放，那一组岛屿里会有互相影响，可能之前全村抚养，现在父母抚养
其次，更多时间谈到父母不代表由父母抚养，这种假设科学吗？经得起实地推敲和考察吗？“我”的访谈里还有其他岛的孩子，要证明，其中比例问题。另外，访谈问题科学吗？是否有诱导性？孩子们的回答又是否客观可信，有没有受情绪干扰，正因想念父母才多多提起。
再次，即使F的不准确，作者的是否是更好的？应有第三方判断，结论不能代表方法错误，而作者的准确性有待于判断。

冬涧苦雪UID: 3277513

8月8日argue提纲（22/23/24）

22 According to a recent report, cheating among college and university students is on the rise. However, Groveton College has successfully reduced student cheating by adopting an honor code, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. Groveton's honor code replaced a system in which teachers closely monitored students; under that system, teachers reported an average of thirty cases of cheating per year. In the first year the honor code was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey, a majority of Groveton students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without. Thus, all colleges and universities should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton's in order to decrease cheating among students.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
                                                

逻辑链条：
最近报告，大学生作弊人数上升。
G大学采用诚信法则（自己不作弊，且举报他们作弊）成功减少了作弊人数
代替了老的老师监考的考试方法，老的方法下，教师报告平均每年30个作弊情况。新方法第一年，学生举报21个，五年后，降到14.
最近调查，大多数G校学生从有了诚信法则后不愿作弊。
结论：所有大学应采取类似方法减少作弊。

提纲：
首先，（整体局部原因）大学生作弊人数上升的报告并不适合每个学校，所以不应所有学校都应该采取措施减少作弊。
其次，（因果错误）新老方法作弊人数不同可能由于考试难易、监考松紧、上报意识 ；（数据模糊）数量减少不代表政策有效，要看作弊率的变化。（整体局部）政策第一年和第五年并不代表所有年份，两个年份数量少，可证性不强。
再次，学生态度调查的样本有多少，大多数是什么概念，调查问题是否有诱导性，是否中立客观可靠。另外是否真实想法，是否因政策有利而隐瞒态度？
23 The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
"Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research of mine proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is invalid and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid as well. The interview-centered method that my team of graduate students is currently using in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
                                                
（同20）

24 A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

逻辑链条：
        最近发布的一个为期20年的关于Sali对M地居民头疼治疗效果的调查显示，使用含Sali食物和头疼平均数量有关。
        食品公司还发现Sali可以用作味道添加剂，所以很多公司打算这样做。
        结论：健康专家预测，M地居民头疼状况在未来会变少。提纲：
首先，（调查问题）样本人数，代表性，对象选择差异性，调查执行者，客观中立可靠度如何。
其次，（因果）是否其他因素导致好转，工厂环保空气质量变好，水资源清洁，生活环境卫生，生活压力减少，医疗水平提升。（真对平均数）是否有20年内头疼次数上升的，比例多大。没有使用过Sali的人发病情况，可用来排除Salikeneng .
再次，食品公司的发现不具客观公正性，应有第三方。且作为调味剂是否有副作用，引发别的病变。

冬涧苦雪UID: 3277513

8月9日作业：

25 The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

                                                

逻辑链条：

现状：最近的俱乐部在65mile外，因而新开的俱乐部就会独占当地市场

Jazz在M地流行，R：100.000人参加去年夏天Jazz节；很多Jazz音乐人住在M地；Jazz收音节目收听率最高

全国研究：Jazz迷每年在Jazz上花掉1000美元

结论：在M地开Jazz音乐俱乐部收益大。

提纲：

首先，（因果）很多习惯外面俱乐部的人不一定会来新的俱乐部，体制、同伴、气氛、管理水平等因素都会影响。

其次，流行原因有问题。应用参加J节人占整地区人数比例，如果有千万人口，就不算流行了；参加J节的不一定都是M地居民，游者···；音乐人住在这，可能因为环境好；收听率高，也许整体收听电台节目的人就不多，别的节目太烂了。

而且，有数据表明流行就会挣钱吗？会不会有其他娱乐项目分流爵士乐爱好者？

再次，（调查）样本、问卷设计、数据处理、结果核实、实施过程、客观可信度···消费水平如何，愿去俱乐部还是自己happy--------------这点没想到

（整体局部）全国研究不一定适应M；1000占整体消费比例如何，也许只是凤毛菱角。

26 The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.

"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades, food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

                                                

（同24）

27 The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.

"Commuters complain that increased rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway between the suburbs and the city center has doubled their commuting time. The favored proposal of the motorists' lobby is to widen the highway, adding an additional lane of traffic. But last year's addition of a lane to the nearby Green Highway was followed by a worsening of traffic jams on it. A better alternative is to add a bicycle lane to Blue Highway. Many area residents are keen bicyclists. A bicycle lane would encourage them to use bicycles to commute, and so would reduce rush-hour traffic rather than fostering an increase."

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

逻辑链条：

（人们反映，上下班时间B高速路交通量增加一倍。最好的措施是拓宽道路，再加一个车道。）

去年，G高速公路加了一条，却加重交通拥堵。

很多当地居民喜欢骑自行车。

结论：更好的方法是加自行车道。这样可以鼓励他们汽车上下班，减少交通量，不会加重。

提纲：

解决谁的问题？commuters包括很多，各有所好，论者应提供公交、私家车、自行车比例，对交通拥堵的影响。

（错误类比）两个路的等级、人口、路上工具、两年内的变化，导致G更堵的原因？

（因果）喜欢自行车不代表可以骑车上下班，距离，不现实，天气安全度。是否影响交通管理，可能更混乱