再问一个ARGUMENT 60的解析

catfieldUID??2481699

60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.




我能想出来的就只有below-normal temperatures, （总是感觉有点不对但是又说不出来= =
建造的新房子有可能配备有相应的供暖设施
这个地区的人们可能采用的是集中供暖，所以主要业务为零售油的CI公司是没市场的

改作文的ECHO还提出一条，就算人们在上个季节忍受了90天的极度寒冷天气并烧油供暖，也不能说明用油的需求就会大幅增加

另外就是只基于上个季度的气候做出的预报不一定准确


除了这些还有其他的吗

kelin212UID??3378566

此为高频题呀，我考到2遍~~~鉴于印象深刻，我就说说我的思路吧
我基本都是采用三点论的：
1. 主要能源形势的问题：heating oil可能是当地家庭的传统主要供热能源，但不一定能保证在今后也是主要能源。原因可以是你说的集中供暖，不过我强调的是新能源的可能性。
2. 天气预报问题：第一天气预报可能不准；第二90天的below-normal的天气也不一定说明使用heating oil总量就会多，因为很可能除了这90天平均气温都很高， 那这个季度的oil使用总量其实并不会增多。
3. 住房人口问题：虽然在新建很多房子，但无法保证当地人口一定会持续增长，可能由于其他原因(经济，环境等)使当地人口在将来几年不增反减，使oil零售业没有市场。

个人拙见，以供娱乐~~~

catfieldUID??2481699

kelin212 发表于 2013-10-5 05:24
此为高频题呀，我考到2遍~~~鉴于印象深刻，我就说说我的思路吧
我基本都是采用三点论的：
1. 主要能源形势 ...

谢谢谢谢，那看来都基本囊括到了~