第一次argument 146，请多指教

梦回唐朝123UID: 3546457

The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."


In this argument, the author predicts that the requirement of heating oil will increase in the next five years. This conclusion is based on the 90 days with below-normal temperatures last heating season, the prediction from climate forecasters and the trend of more houses being built for population growth. Nonetheless, the author fails to provide some evidence which is crucial for the validity of his argument.

The author mentions that the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, which leads to the premise that the weather was cold. Apparently he holds that 90 days with colder weather can reflect the wholly decrease of temperature in that region. However, considering the rule that the general weather condition is based on the average temperature during a period, it might be possible that the rest days in the winter was distinctly above normal temperatures. In this case, weather in that region was warmer instead of colder. Therefore, additional statistics about the temperature of the rest days in winter are needed to reflect the general weather condition of the region.

Even if the weather was colder than normal, the prediction from climate forecasters can not reveal a tendency of climate change in the next few years. According to the author, climate forecasters are able to precisely foresee the weather condition in the future. Yet because of too much involved variables, trend of weather seems unpredictable. For instance, one can never foresee a volcanic eruption which might lead to a notable rising of temperature or an abrupt earthquake which can remarkably change the landform as well as the climate of a location. In this way, more evidence is required to ensure the liability of climate prediction.

Even though the trend of the weather getting cold is believable, the author should not come to the assertion that many new houses will promote the demand of heating oil. Obviously, he assumes that these new houses will still use oil as their major fuel for heating. but one can not deny the possibility that due to the reform of technology, new built house can use alternative energy resources such as solar power instead, which will no longer require the use of oil. Consequently, some important details of energy supply of new houses should be provided.

To sum up, the author tend to predict an increased demand of heating oil, yet he needs to give more evidence for improving the validity of this argument .

max940623UID: 3559548

有缘，我第一篇练的是145。。。
看到你的文章很有启发，第一个大错误局部推整体居然忽视了。
但是觉得第二个只是小错误不值得写一段。我个人用了个小让步就过去了
第三个貌似有点跑偏 new homes是一个Evidence，证明近期人口增长，再有一个假设增长趋势会延续5年（时间类错误），然后强行搭建起人口增长与用油需求增长的因果关系（因果类错误）。
目前为止你语言比我好不少;P

哦好像第三个错误没问题，我弄混了trend的指代