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发表于 2014-10-27 02:04:57
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本帖最后由 lisa_C 于 2014-10-27 15:24 编辑
32) The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Quiot Manufacturing.
During the past year, Quiot Manufacturing had 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than at the nearby Panoply Industries plant, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts say that significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents are fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Quiot and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that employees will get adequate amounts of sleep.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
相关argument:104,105,106,167
CLAIM
Shortening each of three work shifts by one hour will help Quiot maintain employees get adequate amounts of sleep, reduce its number of on-the-job accidents and thereby increase productivity
缩短三班轮岗时间一小时能保证工人充足睡眠,从而减少事故并提高生产率
DATA/EVIDENCE
1. Panoply的时间比Quiot短一个小时,比Quiot少30%的事故率
2. 专家说工作事故的发生和工人的疲劳与缺觉有很大的关系
WARRANT
1. 假设Panoply与Quiot除工作轮岗时间外其他各方面相似,Panoply的经验对Quiot有借鉴意义,Panoply工作轮岗时间比Q少一小时是事故率低的主因,说明Q也可以采取P的工作轮岗时间以减少工作事故
2. 假如专家关于事故率和工人疲劳度与睡眠数量的说辞可信且缩短轮岗时间后工人有更多时间用于睡眠,则缩短轮岗时间能减少故事率
3. 文中还假设了保证工人充足睡眠能提高生产率
逻辑漏洞
1. 关于Quiot可以借鉴Panoply经验的假设不成立,或许两家企业属性非常不同,缩短一小时是否有效包括该准确调整的时间数量都不得而知
2. 关于Panoply事故少主要因为工作轮岗时间少和假设不成立,也许是其他因素
3. 关于专家所谓的工作事故率和工人疲劳度睡眠时间相关的言论可信的假设不成立,也许专家言论未经科学验证只是基于猜测
4. 关于缩短工作轮岗时间能提高工人睡眠量的假设不成立,或许工人将多出的时间用于他用
5. 关于缩短工作轮岗时间能提高生产率的假设前文完全没有evidence支撑,需要给出可信论据
提纲
1. 关于Quiot可以借鉴Panoply经验的假设不成立。
(1)首先,P家事故少未必是因为工作轮岗时间短。也可能P家员工安全培训教育做得好或是在天气舒适的地方员工更能集中注意力工作。
(2)即使时间是主因,两家企业可能非常不同,Quiot可能是化工企业生产过程容易释放有毒气体容易使工人受伤,而Panoply主要生产食品、生产过程全自动,工人不容易受伤。没有更多论据证明这一假设可信,则Panoply的经验可能在Quiot失效,也就不能达到所声称的效果。
(3)即使Panoply事故少的主因是轮岗时间短而且两家企业类似,Quiot应该缩短到多少时间是一个疑问,也许Quiot的工人超负荷工作,即使缩短一小时也达不到明显减少事故率的效果,也许需要缩短1.5小时。缩短多少时间才能使Q家在将事故率控制在一定范围之内的同时效益最大化,这些都是需要仔细考虑的,决不应该草率照搬P家的工作时间。
2. 关于专家言论可信的假设不成立。没有可信的引用来源,没有证明其可信的细节。
完全有可能专家的言论过时。
3. 关于缩短工作轮岗时间能够保证工人睡眠量的假设不成立。
例如,也许在旧时间安排中,工人工作日因为时间来不及不敢到较远的地方娱乐,在多出一个小时后工作可以去较远地方娱乐,这样一来反而工人的睡眠时间少了。
4. 关于缩短工作轮岗时间能够提高生产率的假设不成立。
也许Q家的产品生产过程属性决定了连续作业更能提高生产率。如果这一假设不成立,说话人也不应当在效果中提及。
全文
The author has a concern on the problem of on-the-job accidents in Quiot and argues that shortening each of three work shifts by one hour will help Quiot maintain employees get adequate amounts of sleep, thus it can help reduce its number of on-the-job accidents and increase its productivity. But when we closely examinate the evidence privided and implied assumptions based, his argument is not credible.
First, the author's analysis starts from the comparison between Quiot Manufacturing and Panoply Industries, and an implied assumption in this comparison is that Quiot Manufacturing and Panoply Industries are similar other than work shifts time and Panoply's short work shifts time is the main fact contributing to its low accident rate. However, there are many other possible explanations about Panaply's low on-the-job accident rate. For instance, the managers of Panoply Industries may have more concern about workers safety and devote more money in safety training of workers. Or they may locate in different areas, the weather in Panoply's area is more comfortable thus workers can concentrate better in working. Moreover, even though it's true that Panoply's short work shifts time makes its low on-the-job accident rate, we don't konw whether Quiot and Panoply are similar in other aspects. It is entirely possible that they are quite different. Perhaps Quiot produces chemical products and within its producing process, workers would easily harmed by poison gas, while Panoply just produces small cokies and its producing process is simple and safe. In addition, no informaiton about Quiot's optimized choice is provided in this argument. Whether Quiot can simply copy Panoply's work shifts mode is questionable. Instead of shortening one hour,shortening one and a half hour may be the best choice for Quiot to maxmize its profit with controlling its on-the-job accident rate at the same level of that of Panoply. Maybe shortening one and a half hours is the best choice. Without providing more evidence to support the reliability of implied assumption mentioned above, we cannot accept the speaker's assertion that shortening work shifts time by one hour will reduce accidents in working process in Quiot.
Second,experts' conclusion cited that significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents are fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers is assumed to be true without solid support. However, the experts' conclusion may result from some research which is not valid. For example, the sample they chose may not have been representative of workers in Quiot Manufacturing, observing workers who mainly use their brain to work. Another possibility is that the experts' words cited by the author may be out of date, if coming from some decades years ago paper. Since the author doesn't offer the detail about who are the experts, how the experts get this conclusion, the fundamental assumption is not effectively backed.
Third, even though experts' conclusion cited is reliable, another assumption implied that workers will sleep more if Quiot shortens work shifts time is also incredible. The experts talks about the relationship of on-the-job accidents and fatigue and sleep deprivation, while the author discuss about that of on-the-job accidents and shorter work shifts time. Here comes the problem: longer work shifts time does not equal to fatigue and sleep deprivation. Even Quiot's work shifts time is longer, it is totally possible that workers will spend extra time in enterntainment. For example, for those who do not have enough time to do shopping in old schedule, they may go to farther shopping malls and thus they may even spend less time in sleep if the working schedule is changed. Without offering sufficient information to prove that workers will surely spend more time in sleep, it is going to far to say that this measure is effective.
Finally, the speaker assumes shortening work shifts time will increase productivity, which is never mentioned before.Perhaps productivity will instead if workers are forced to stop working at their most efficient time. Without evidence provided to support the assumed result of changing work shifts time, we don't know whether this measure will have impact on Quiot's productivity.
In sum, to better support his argument, the author should carefully check more details and provide better evidence to make sure his implied assumptions mentioned above are reliable. Otherwise, it is suspect that Quiot can reduce on-the-job accidents and increace productivity by shortening work shifts time by one hour.
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