Argument 60 提纲或全文互改

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  60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

gzc405933323UID: 3574833

    Based on the evidences about the temperature trend, the predicted growth in house construction and the major heating sources, the author claims that it is appropriate to invest in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business is the retail of home heating oil. However, the argument is not sound enough due to several unconvincing assumptions about the future sources of heating, the usage of heat by the new houses and the competitive landscape of the heating oil industry.
     First, the author implicitly assumes that the oil and fuel will continue to be the main sources of heating. However, it is possible that new heating methods will supplant the traditional oil and fuel heating. For instance, there might be a prevalence of electric heating in the future because it engenders smaller amount of greenhouse gas emission. If this is the case, the demand for home heating oil and fuel in general will decrease, which might undermine the revenue and enterprise value for Consolidated Industries.
      Even though the author proves that the oil and fuel will still be the major heating sources in the future, he or she needs to justify the assumption that the market share of Consolidate Industries in the heating oil industry. Probably the heating oil industry will undergo a tremendous change in terms of the competitive landscape: more companies will enter the industry and strive for customers with low prices. If this is true, the demand for home heating oil of Consolidated Industries will decrease and challenge the validity of the conclusion that it is worthwhile to invest in Consolidated Industry.
       Even if the author justifies that Consolidated Industry can defend its market share in the future home heating oil industry, he or she still need to verify the assumption that the improvement in the home heating oil business will turn Consolidated Industries into an ideal investment. It is possible that other major businesses of Consolidated Industries are not expected to prosper in the future. Therefore, it is not safe to assert that the Consolidated Industries is a valuable investment target. Moreover, the current share price of Consolidated Industries might be so high that it is an overvalued firm. The market expects a reversion of stock price and company value to the normal level. Therefore, if investors invest in the stocks of Consolidated Industries, they will probably suffer a loss from the incoming tumble in stock price.
       The potential growth in home heating oil business due to the trend for a continuing low temperature and the growth in the housing market might be tempting reasons for the investment firm to pitch Consolidated Industries. However, the author based his or her conclusion or several unjustified assumptions related to future sources of heating, market competition and the relationship between the improvement in home heating oil business and corporate values. It is recommended that the author should conduct further relevant research to corroborate those assumptions.

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

gzc405933323 发表于 2014-11-17 18:18
Based on the evidences about the temperature trend, the predicted growth in house construction a ...

你时间有点紧 不过还是建议先写提纲
60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

Based on the evidences about the temperature trend, the predicted growth in house construction and the major heating sources, the author claims that it is appropriate to invest in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business is the retail of home heating oil. However, the argument is not sound enough due to several unconvincing assumptions about the future sources of heating, the usage of heat by the new houses and the competitive landscape of the heating oil industry.

evidence 不可数
你的措辞里还是带有老G的思维 还在用unconvincing这类字眼
根据题目要求 应该说
We need to examine a number of assumptions about … in order to evaluate the soundness of the argument


     First, the author implicitly assumes that the oil and fuel will continue to be the main sources of heating. However, it is possible that new heating methods will supplant the traditional oil and fuel heating. For instance, there might be a prevalence of electric heating in the future because it engenders smaller amount of greenhouse gas emission. If this is the case, the demand for home heating oil and fuel in general will decrease, which might undermine the revenue and enterprise value for Consolidated Industries.
嗯 这段挺清晰 或许可以写点更时髦的页岩气之类的  


      Even though the author proves that the oil and fuel will still be the major heating sources in the future, he or she needs to justify the assumption that the market share of Consolidate Industries in the heating oil industry. Probably the heating oil industry will undergo a tremendous change in terms of the competitive landscape: more companies will enter the industry and strive for customers with low prices. If this is true, the demand for home heating oil of Consolidated Industries will decrease and challenge the validity of the conclusion that it is worthwhile to invest in Consolidated Industry.

这种递进的过渡方式不太好  好像北美范文是这么的 但是那是老G

而且assumption that后面没有完整的句子 汗

感觉这一段和上一段都在讲竞争的问题 上段讲的是替代品的竞争 这段讲的是同行业的竞争 或许可以合并起来


       Even if the author justifies that Consolidated Industry can defend its market share in the future home heating oil industry, he or she still need to verify the assumption that the improvement in the home heating oil business will turn Consolidated Industries into an ideal investment. It is possible that other major businesses of Consolidated Industries are not expected to prosper in the future. Therefore, it is not safe to assert that the Consolidated Industries is a valuable investment target. Moreover, the current share price of Consolidated Industries might be so high that it is an overvalued firm. The market expects a reversion of stock price and company value to the normal level. Therefore, if investors invest in the stocks of Consolidated Industries, they will probably suffer a loss from the incoming tumble in stock price.

这里的思路是可以的 就是是否盈利的问题
或许你可以先讨论一下 成本上涨的可能性 这个似乎是最直接影响利润的一点
关于估值过高的点 挺赞


       The potential growth in home heating oil business due to the trend for a continuing low temperature and the growth in the housing market might be tempting reasons for the investment firm to pitch Consolidated Industries. However, the author based his or her conclusion or several unjustified assumptions related to future sources of heating, market competition and the relationship between the improvement in home heating oil business and corporate values. It is recommended that the author should conduct further relevant research to corroborate those assumptions.


tempting reasons 这个说法好奇怪

还是一个基本的问题 就是你一开始就认定这个argument是flawed的 这个是老G思维
应该写成 in order to decide whether this argument is reasonable, we need more information about … to examine the assumptions discussed above


你好像还有一个星期就要考了

先祝你好运
希望你认真看看我的博客里的文章
你的练习我会尽快看

希望你考完后可以写一个总结给我

gzc405933323UID: 3574833

tesolchina 发表于 2014-11-17 21:37
你时间有点紧 不过还是建议先写提纲
60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing i ...

老师您意思是我的措词应该温和一些，是偏向于提出改进方案而不是说题目论点不好的地方是吗？

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

gzc405933323 发表于 2014-11-22 14:22
老师您意思是我的措词应该温和一些，是偏向于提出改进方案而不是说题目论点不好的地方是吗？

不是温和的问题 而是要按照题目要求来写
具体请看我的博客里关于argument的楼层

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tesolchina 发表于 2014-11-22 16:25
不是温和的问题 而是要按照题目要求来写
具体请看我的博客里关于argument的楼层

那就是修改thesis的措词就可以了吧？还是在相应的论述段也要调整？还有，我仔细分析了老师您argument的示范，您的模板是可以是将所有类型的文章都按assumption题的思路写对吧？比如question answered这一类，您是每段第一句先提出问题，之后引出相对应的的assumption，然后转回assumption那种思路写。