argument 5/159/173 limit moped rental to reduce accidents

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

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5) The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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妄誩UID: 3566367

The letter suggests that the council of Balmer Island restrict mopeds rental service in summer because of the population increase during the summer month. The author further predicts that the policy will reduce 50% of the moped accidents annually according to the sucessful practice of the neighboring island of Seaville. However, the recommendation leaves several questions unanswered concerning the number of private-owned mopeds, the proportion of summer accidents and reasons of accidents decrease in Seaville, which are crucial in assessing its validity.

1 the number of private-owned mopeds— the restriction on rentals may be irrelevant
如果该岛私家摩托占主要，而租赁摩托占的比重小，那么限制租赁就没用

2 the proportion of summer accidents---if a considerable number of the accidents occurred in winter because of frozen roads, then a 50% annual reduction may not be achieved
如果夏季事故不是全年事故主要来源，冬天也有相当比重的事故（如因为结冰路滑），而冬天车辆没减少，所以事故也不一定减少50%

3 reasons of decline of accidents in S: road condition, safe awareness, strict traffic law enforcement
如果S岛在限制租赁的同时改善路况，提高司机安全意识，加强交通执法，那么B岛仅仅限制租赁就是不够的

天高UID: 3536962

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

The arguer claims that the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months on Balmer Island and recommends that the town council should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island’s moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. The arguer predicts that limiting the number of rentals can reduce moped accidents by 50 percent annually as the neighboring island of Seaville. Although the claims seem reasonable at first glance, we cannot fully accept the arguer’s recommendation concerning several unanswered question. For example, the proportion of summer accidents in a whole year, did Seaville Island take other measures to reduce the moped accidents, is there an established linear relationship between the number of moped rented and the number of accidents?

1. If most accidents occurred in winter on Balmer Island, it is not enough that limiting the number of rentals during summer season to achieve a half reduction of moped accidents.
如果多数事故发生在冬季, 只限制夏天的机动车出租可能不能使事故减半.

2. Seaville Island might have more street lights and take other measure to reduce the number of accidents.
S岛可能还采取了其他措施来减少事故, 如果B岛只是减少机动车出租,可能不能达到相应的效果.

3. If there is not a stringent linear relationship between the number of moped rented and the number of accidents, , limiting the number of moped rentals by half does not necessarily mean there will be a fifty percent reduction in accidents.
如果没有已确定的严格线性关系, 机动车出租减半并不意味着事故相应减半.

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

天高 发表于 2015-5-23 09:41
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, w ...

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