Argument 60 提纲讨论

ee_stoneUID: 3573213

抄题：
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years.
Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

相关：145/146/150/154/155

Claim: Recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

Reason 1:  heating oil is traditionally used as the major fuel in the winter in northeastern United States.

Reason 2:  cold weather will continue for several more years in northeastern United States.

Reason 3:  population growth will increase the needs of heating oil.


开头段：

According to the letter, the cold weather and population growth in a certain region serve as reasons for a prediction of an increased demand for heating oil, which is further used to support a recommendation of investment in a company whose major business operations include heating oil retail sale. There are some assumptions implied to complete the logical chain. However, if some of them are unwarranted, the whole recommendation can be misleading and cause loss of a great fortune.

Assumption 1:
The first assumption is that Northeastern United States is the main market of heating oil. The information of cold weather and population growth are both about that region. If there are other equivalent markets, for example, northwestern region or the mid west region, where the weather will be above-normal in the next few years, the logical chain will be weakened.
第一个假设是东北地区是取暖用油的主要市场。信中所提供的天气和人口增长的信息全部是关于这一地区的。但如果有其他地区，如西北或是中西部地区也有取暖用油的需求，但温度在未来几年又会高于正常水平，信中所依赖的逻辑就不能成立。

Assumption 2:
Population growth will introduce new demand for heating oil. The underlined assumption is that the newly built homes will follow the convention to use heating oil in winter. If they use solar energy or electrical power to generate heat instead, the demand for oil may stay the same.
第二步推理是新增人口也会带来取暖用油的需求增长。暗含的假设是新建的房屋也会采用传统方法，使用取暖用油进行冬季取暖。但如果新建房屋使用太阳能或者电力进行取暖，则不会带来取暖用油的需求增长。

Assumption 3:
To recommend the investment in the company mentioned in the letter, the firm assumes that business operations other than heating oil retail will not degrade at least. Otherwise, the overall performance of the company may not be improved by the increased demand of heating oil. Thus, the investment may not be a good choice.
咨询公司在给出投资建议时，也假设目标公司的其他业务不会有很大的衰退。否则，公司整体的表现就不会因为取暖用油零售业务可能的增长而有很大的提升，这笔投资也可能不是好的选择。

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

我把你的提纲挪到这里了 https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1794613-1-1.html