Horse 7月AW 练习

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Argument 62 进一步研习

The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals.

"In a laboratory study of liquid antibacterial hand soaps, a concentrated solution of UltraClean produced a 40 percent greater reduction in the bacteria population than did the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals. During a subsequent test of UltraClean at our hospital in Workby, that hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection than did any of the other hospitals in our group. Therefore, to prevent serious patient infections, we should supply UltraClean at all hand-washing stations throughout our hospital system.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

==========================
Study result:

(1) The lab study showed that UltraClean (UC) can render 40% greater reduction in the bacteria population than that of the currently used liquid hand soaps in the hospital group. (comparison: lab conditions vs hospital conditions)

(2) Subsequent test of UC at a hospital in Workby, just one branch in the hospital group, reported fewer cases of patient infection than any other hospitals in the group.

Recommendation:

To prevent serious patient infections, we should supply UC at all hand-washing stations throughout the hospital group.

Paraphrase of the logic:

A 和 B在 C 情景中对比发现 A很牛逼，有具体的数据支持 （可能是调查，可能是实验结果，可能是建模分析，有等等可能）；
然后，继续演绎：牛逼的A在 D情景中的D1幕中（注意D情景中有N幕）被证实确实是很牛逼。于是牛逼的A就应该在D情景中的N幕中都演女一号
这个过程，已经悄无声息地偷换了很多概念：
（1） C情景中证明A很牛逼，首先这个不一定成立；退一步讲，即使成立，那也是在C情景中，这可不能随随便便就推演到D情景。 C和D的差异需要点出来，点破！

（2）C 和D可能存在逻辑关系，但这种逻辑关系合理的前提是什么？在有些前提下是不合理的。这种逻辑关系也需要点出来，点破!

结合本文分析如下：

（1）lab study的condition 和真实的hospital 的condition不一样，lab study 中证明UC 牛逼，但是在hospital 中不一定牛逼。UC 在lab study 中被证明牛逼这件事本身也不一定就靠谱，比如，在lab study中，大家知道lab 中的实验条件control 做得好，各种灭菌措施每天都搞，可能是UC 和某一种灭菌措施有协同作用使得UC 比 currently used liquid hand soaps 的antibacterial effect 要好，这样其实就不能说明是单独的UC比 currently used liquid hand soaps 牛逼。这其实是指出可能的hidden assumption以达到weaken the argument 的目的。

（2）causes of fewer cases of patient infections at the hospital in Workby?  
a. 可能这家分支医院病人就少，case 少就不足为怪；
b. 也可能他家让病人经常洗手，这样降低了infection的chance, case 少也不足为怪；
c. 来他家的patient 免疫力很猛，case 少也不足为怪；
d. 他家经常做定点定时消毒，病房基本无死角，case 少也不足为怪；
e. 他家用的抗菌药是最新组合配方，对病菌杀伤力很有效，case少也不足为怪
反正possible causes 有一堆，只要对这方面的知识有足够的了解，能举出好多.
这么多理由为什么偏偏就说是用了UC的功劳呢？显然这是不能让人信服的！

另一方面有一个硬伤就是，UC 在Workby 这家牛逼，推广到所有的hospital group 就一定照样牛逼吗？水土不服怎么办？

（3）即使UC很猛，杀菌效果很好，但是，请注意，杀菌效果好（只根据bacteria population 多少来定其杀菌效果好坏实也很牵强，这个就不喷了，展开就太多了！）和 chances of patient infection 不是正相关的逻辑。简单地分一下bacteria 的类别，可以分为致病菌和非致病菌（非致病菌又可以分为对人有好处的和对人没有好处也没有坏处的），下面开始喷了：

a. 如果UC是对infection-free bactera 有response, 又如果这些bacteria 对人没有多大坏处也没有多大好处。那你UC 多杀40% 有什么用呢？反正杀多杀少和infection 没有一点联系。

b. 如果UC是对infection-free bacteria 有response, 又如果这些bacteria 比如像肠胃中有些促进消化作用的细菌被UC给干掉了，那其实不仅不会降低infection, 反而会对人的健康产生负面影响。（有点像是倒打一耙！）
感觉arguer 要哭了！


你上面的分析锚地没有提到serious infection这个概念 这明显是原题的一个重要切入点
总的来说 你的分析很好很认真 能找到做这种题的乐趣显然是最理想的效果了



Rewrite:

Grounding on a lab study of UltraClean (UC), a kind of soap, and the subsequent test of UC at the hospital in Workby, the director of the hospital group believes that the UC can reduce the bacterial population by 40%, hence lowering the chances of patient infections. Moreover, the director recommends that all the branches of their hospital group should introduce the UC to replace the currently used liquid hand soaps. Yet the director fails to make a sound recommendation when overlooking kinds of assumptions. Among the assumptions are the reliability of the study, the causes of fewer cases of patient infections at the hospital in Workby, and the relationship among bacterial population, antibacterial effect and patient infections.
Grounding on 没见过这么用  
fails to make a sound recommendation when overlooking kinds of assumptions 这个问题我在其他地方反复说过 不要说原论证错了 而要说可能有问题  需要进一步调查   
overlooking kinds of assumptions 搭配  这个overlook的使用说明你对assumption这个概念理解不够好  
Among the assumptions are 这里的搭配也有问题  

To begin with, the reliability of the study is open to kinds of questions. The lab study showed that the UC can reduce the bacterial population by 40% compared with the currently used liquid hand soaps, yet alternatives to such a gap are not ruled out. Maybe the UC together with some kind of antibacterial measure conducted in the lab almost every day does render such a positive result. Under such conditions, the UC alone may not cause the 40% reduction. Moreover, considering the different conditions between labs and hospitals, the positive effect of UC demonstrated by lab may not be applied to the real case in hospitals at all.

open to kinds of questions 不懂你的意思  
主题句要指出assumption   
alternatives to such a gap 不懂你的意思
some kind of antibacterial measure conducted in the lab 这个不是很靠谱 如果是为了测试soap的杀菌效能 不太可能另外做杀菌处理  


Also, it's assumed that fewer cases of patient infections at the hospital in Workby are due to the better effect of UC. While it's highly possible that the branch hospital can only attract very few patients, the fewer infection cases would make sense accordingly. Or the hospital in Workby takes some special measures to guide their patients to wash hands more frequently than any other branch hospital in the hospital group; maybe patients coming to the hospital have a relative stronger immune system to prevent them from the infection cases; maybe the hospital clears their patient rooms with antibacterial agents regularly as to leave little room for the infection cases; maybe the hospital introduces the latest antibacterial drugs to the unlucky patients to make them less vulnerable to the infection cases. Under the scenarios above, the infection cases all can be controlled reasonably; yet it's not necessary owing to the UC's goodness.

it's highly possible that the branch hospital can only attract very few patients 这里讨论病人的绝对数量的思路是对的 但是措辞有问题  怎么可能只能吸引很少的病人呢  你直接说这个医院规模比较小就完了嘛   
It is possilbe that Workby is a smaller hospital serving fewer patients on a daily basis than the other hospitals   latest antibacterial drugs to the unlucky patients (unlucky?)  
感觉这段提出的可能性太多 可以考虑减少一点 多一些解释和展开讨论  


Finally, the arguer assumes that by reducing the bacterial population the infection cases will be suppressed. Yet the relationship between bacterial population, antibacterial effect and cases of patient infections can be very complicated. Generally, the bacteria can be divided as infection-related and infection-free. Only to the infection-related conditions, controlling the bacterial population can have a positive relationship with the antibacterial effect hence the infection cases. While as to infection-free conditions, if the UC had a positive response to the bacteria which do no good or no bad, the 40% reduction rendered by UC actually have nothing to do with the infection cases at all; if the positive response was oriented to the bacteria beneficial to our dynamic healthy status, such a 40% reduction just poses a negative effect to our health.

Generally, the bacteria can be divided as infection-related and infection-free. 这个分类放在这里可能把问题搞复杂了  你要注意看题目讲的是serious infection 这个词你需要在文章里处理  


To sum up, the recommendation proposed by the director of the hospital group should be reevaluated to rule out possible negative effects. The reliability of the study as well as the causes of the fewer patient infections should be checked out carefully. What's more, the relationship between bacterial population, antibacterial effect and infection cases should be gauged according to the scientific research, especially the latest research.

(1)王老师邀请我给老师的范文提点修改意见，我觉得上面的分析已经很透彻了；感觉老师的点都有，就是没有点破。比如说第三段“Whether or not the extra 40% bacteria reduction would actually make a difference in infection control remains an open question. ” 其实就是在challenge "the relationship between bacterial population, antibacterial effect and infection cases ",只是老师的范文只给了一句，而且这个assumption 是很关键的，打蛇选七寸，我个人觉得把这个最核心的assumption 给掰开了，碾碎了，整个逻辑就算是解析清楚了。

(2) 整个工作用了将近四个多小时，我觉得这种时间上的投入还是很值得的，能把一些逻辑思路真正地看透了，这样便于消化。希望大家以后可以对自己特别熟悉的类型给一些详细的解析。

(3) 当时我练习的时候，其实思路都有了，只是时间紧迫，没有完全展开。感觉重写的过程中对整个逻辑的把握更细致了。

(4) 整个重写感觉是写了一篇科技小报告，呵呵！挺有趣的！

(5) 谢谢老师一直以来的指导，以上的产出源于和老师积极的交流、老师辛勤的反馈，还有不停的善意提醒。呵呵，祝好！

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Argument 32/104/105/106/107 学习
https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1834110-1-1.html

感觉这种把一类逻辑推理掰开了，碾碎了，清清楚楚！非常锻炼逻辑思维，这种一招制胜的学习方法很值得学习！有空好好拜读！好好写总结！

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argument 153  

https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1864420-1-1.html

The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of Bargain Brand Cereals.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

One year ago we introduced our first product, Bargain Brand breakfast cereal.

Our very low prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies.

Although the companies producing the top brands have since tried to compete with us by lowering their prices and although several plan to introduce their own budget brands, not once have we needed to raise our prices to continue making a profit.

Given our success in selling cereal, we recommend that Bargain Brand now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products as quickly as possible.

=================


Grounded on the success in selling Bargain Brand Cereals (BBC) one year ago, the board of directors recommends that the BBC should expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products as to make a profit. Yet the recommendation is based on some hidden or stated assumptions which need to be reevaluated as to make it convincing. Among the assumptions are that the new products of BBC will make a profit as the old ones, that the competing companies will not affect the market share owned by BBC, and that the low-price based strategy will be popular to their customer as before.


To begin with, it's assumed that the will-be-released new products in BBC can make a profit as the old ones one year ago.


Another assumption being made here is that new low-priced products and related strategies proposed by competing companies will not reduce the market shares own by BBC.


Also, the arguer assumed that the low-priced products in BBC will continue to attract the customers in the future.


To sum up,


作业晚交了，赶上上周有点空，老师的文章却看不了，这周实验室的事情太多。估计作业都要晚交了。

这个专题对我来说很有帮助，自己以前就是重复原文，没有把chaim 和 data的逻辑给点出来。

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补交作业 （7.30）

7.27

https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1865072-1-1.html


100) Colleges and universities should require their students to spend at least one semester studying in a foreign country.

Write a response in which you discuss your views on the policy and explain your reasoning for the position you take. In developing and supporting your position, you should consider the possible consequences of implementing the policy and explain how these consequences shape your position.

===========================

As the international exchanges go into all kinds of life, studying abroad for colleges students is becoming a trend. Nowadays, colleges are trying to require their students to study in a foreign country for at least one semester. For students majoring in foreign languages, economy, sociology and so on, such a policy may sound good. It's may not necessary for students studying biology, chemistry or physics; also, some students lack of sufficient financial resources may find it hard to pay for the fees related to studying abroad.

To begin with, the policy requiring students to study at least one semester in a foreign country can be beneficial for students majoring in foreign languages, economy, sociology and so on. Take foreign languages major as an example, studying at home is limited to the text books, teacher-to-students communication and foreigner-to-students exchanges. The real skills of handling a real case under the real condition is far from the teaching contents experienced in the classes at home. The best way, or maybe the only way to appreciate the depth of a language is to enjoy the real environment in that foreign country. Studying abroad can improve the expressing skills, better the understanding of the culture which is well matched with the education purposes of foreign languages.

While some students whose majors ranging from biology to chemisty to physics may find such a policy unnecessary for their major requirement or career development. As we all know, for these science students, their daily schedules are piled up with kinds of experiment records, project homework, research paper reviews. They can't spare enough time to study a language, then study their major courses .taught in a foreign language. Besides, the study plan abroad is different from the domestic one, thus making such students going abroad confused. They may find it hard to choose a proper course to study; they may fall behind from their foreign counterparts when encountering some language problems. Such a culture shot may delay their normal major study, which will cast some disadvantages to their study plans hence academic performance.

Also, not every student has sufficient financial resources to study abroad, especially without any scholarship from the college. For these students, the policy may have nothing to do with their study. For studying abroad nowadays needs a lot of money to support the traffic fees, daily cost, house rents and so on. Without enough money, students from poor families may just regard the studying abroad for a semester as a dream.

To sum up, the policy requiring students to study abroad for at least one semester needs to be reevaluated. For some students such as foreign majors, the policy may be beneficial for their career development; while for some science students, studying abroad for a semester is not a necessary choice, especially for the undergraduates. In any case, for students lack of money, requiring them to study in a foreign country for one semester is just an impossible dream if without finical support from the outside.


(37min)

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补交作业（7.30）

7月28日 同主题练习-argument 100

  https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1865077-1-1.html

100) The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, a jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendously profitable.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.


Based on annual jazz festival attendees in the city of Monroe last summer, a highest-rated radio program, and lots of jazz musicians' living in Monroe, the arguer propose that a jazz music club in Monroe will be profitable. However, kinds of hidden or stated assumptions may weaken the argument in part or full. Among the assumptions are that lots of local resident in Monroe loves jazz music, that the local jazz music lovers are loyal jazz music fans, and that the proposed jazz music club will be profitable.

To begin with, it's assumed that the jazz music is very popular among Monroe and residents here are jazz music lovers. Yet the evidence is not convincing enough to support such an assumption. The annual jazz festival held last summer in Monroe was claimed to attract 100,000 people. Maybe most of the 100,000 jazz music lovers are from other places throughout the country. Maybe the annual jazz festival will be held in another place in the future and will not attract that many music lovers again. The highest-rated radio program in Monroe also can't reflect the popularity of jazz music among the local residents. Maybe the radio lovers are the retired old people, they just listen to the radio as a habit, they may just listen to the voice but not enjoy the content. The real jazz music lovers, the young people, may surf the Internet for music shows, not necessary jazz music again. The famous jazz musicians' preferring to live in Monroe can't mean anything about the jazz music; they may just enjoy the quite places to compose jazz music. The popularity of jazz music in Monroe needs to be reevaluated before reaching any conclusion.

Another assumption being made here is that the music lovers in Monroe are loyal jazz music fans. Even assuming that the local residents love music, yet they may not love jazz music the most. The nearest jazz music club is over an hour away, this fact may reflect that the jazz music is not popular here; or else the demand of jazz music from the loyal fans had promoted the establishment of such places.

Also, the arguer assumes that the jazz music club will be profitable. The national study showed that the typical jazz fans spend almost $1,000 every year on jazz entertainment. Yet the study can't give any information about the real case of local music lovers in Monroe. Music lovers here may not spend that much money on jazz music at all. They may prefer to listen to jazz music on line for free. Also, other music clubs oriented to kinds of music styles including jazz music may attract the local music lovers, hence inducing competitive pressure to the proposed jazz music club. Under such conditions, the profitability of the jazz music club can't be ensured.

To sum up, the popularity of Jazz music in Monroe should be reevaluated as to make it convincing. Besides, the preference of music among the local residents should be studied, and the possible factors such as competition from other music clubs should be ruled out as to ensure a profitable premise.

(33min)

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占位 7.29

    https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1865079-1-1.html

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7月30日 同主题练习 argument 34
https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1866295-1-1.html

占位

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总结反馈

占楼

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appreciate it