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本帖最后由 tesolchina 于 2015-5-27 01:01 编辑
5月26日 Argument 32/104/105/106/107
Argument of #32:
During the past year, Quiot Manufacturing had 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than at the nearby Panoply Industries plant, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts say that significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents are fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Quiot and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that employees will get adequate amounts of sleep.
Fact:
1) QM had 30% more on-the-job accidents than the nearby PI
2) PI's work shifts are one hour shorter than QM
Evidence:
3) fatigue and sleep deprivation result in on-the-job accidents
Conclusion:
4) the shift length is the reason of the 30% more on-the-job accidents
5) employees do not have adequate amounts of sleep (and will do with shorter shifts)
Solution:
6) to shorten each of three work shifts by one hour
==========================================================
每一个提纲基本上都是类似的思路：
1 因为题干中比较的是两个工厂事故的绝对数目，所以这可能是一个apple to orange comparison，两个工厂可能从事不同的产业（有一个题目中这个可能性被排出），工厂规模不同，设备新旧程度不同等等，不可以直接比较
2 事故多的原因可能不在于劳累和缺觉，而是比如说预防措施不足，缺乏培训监管等等
3 减少轮班时间不一定能解决劳累缺觉的问题，1)可能是轮班制度不合理（部分人常年夜班）；2)可能员工不拿这个时间去睡觉；3)可能多睡一个小时还是不能消除疲劳，等等
嗯这个思路跟我的很像
感觉前两位同学找切入点还是有些问题 不知道你有什么心得体会？
因为题目太多，题干全部都加粗了，指导语的部分是橙色的。
这次的作业很长，自己都编辑得头昏眼花，先谢谢帮忙互改的同学和王老师
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Argument 32
The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Quiot Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Quiot Manufacturing had 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than at the nearby Panoply Industries plant, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts say that significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents are fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Quiot and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In this paragraph, the author believes that by shortening all three working shift of Quiot Manufacturing (QM), their employee will get adequate amounts of sleep and their on-the-job accidents will be decreased. However, this conclusion and solution is based on several assumptions that may or may not hold true. Firstly, this argument compare the number of on-the-job accidents of QM and Panoply Industries plant (PI), assuming that these two factories are in the same business and utilized the same protocol and standards, and the only different between them is the length of their working shifts. Second, this argument assumes that the QM employees are currently experiencing fatigue and sleep deprivation. Third, the argument assumes that by shortening the each of the three working shifts of QM, its employees will use the extra hour to sleep and this can prevent fatigue and sleep deprivation.
assuming that these two factories are in the same business and utilized the same protocol and standards
其实题目并没有做出这样的假设 这里不要过度解读原题
感觉你开头写得太长 没有必要 时间留给后面好些
To begin with, the argument is comparing the on-the-job accident between QM and PI and assuming that the length of working shifts is the only difference between them. However, there can be many other differences explaining the accident and the working shifts length is the least among them.
Other possibilities: different industries(尽管事故在所有产业中都应避免), protocols, standards, protection supplies, precautions, QM uses old and unreliable equipment, etc.
其实事故总数和事故率的区别你也应该讲
Furthermore, there is an hidden assumption that the QM employees are currently experiencing fatigue and sleep deprivation and they are the reason of the increased accidents; but with the current shift length they may already have enough amounts of sleep.
Other possibilities: QM does not provide good employee training, employees cannot choose the shifts that works the best for them, etc.
对各种意外的原因都可以探索
Finally, another hidden assumption is that the QM employees will use the extra hour to sleep, and by doing so they will get enough amounts of sleep and will not experience fatigue or sleep deprivation; but the employees may not sleep for one more hour; or the extra hour is still not enough for them.
Other possibilities: do other part-time jobs or other things instead of sleeping; they need more time get enough sleep.
这段差不多吧
In conclusion, there are many stated or hidden assumptions in the argument which are not supported by any evidence. If these assumptions are proved to be unwarranted, the solution of shortening QM working shifts by one hour may not make any difference, or even increase accidents if those who are in charge of supervision and hazard prevention also work for shorter periods of time.
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Argument 104
The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a manufacturing company.
"During the past year, workers at our newly opened factory reported 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries. Panoply produces products very similar to those produced at our factory, but its work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts say that fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents. Panoply's superior safety record can therefore be attributed to its shorter work shifts, which allow its employees to get adequate amounts of rest."
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.
In this paragraph, the author believes that the 30 percent more accidents at their new factor results from the fact that their working shifts are one hour longer than that of Panoply Industries (PI). The longer working shift induced fatigue and sleep deprivation which then result in on-the-job accidents. However there are many alternative explanations for the higher numbers of accidents at the new factory. Firstly, although both factories produce similar products, they may have many other differences; so fatigue and sleep deprivation are not the reason of accidents. Second, these two factories may provide very different training for their employees, thus the employees utilized different precautions, and that can also serve as the reason of more accidents. Third, in terms of the working shifts, how the days are break down into three working shifts, and how these shifts are assigned to the workers, may also explain their levels of fatigue and sleep deprivation.
To begin with, although both factories have similar products, there may be many other differences between them in addition to the working shifts, which explain the higher numbers of accidents.
Other possibilities: size of the factories/number of products produced per day, different protocols and standards, hazard prevention and control procedures.
Moreover, in terms of employees, these two factories may have different groups of employees, which serves as another explanation of the different numbers of accidents.
Other possibilities: New factory provide poor training, outdated safety equipment, too young/too old employees(这不算是年轻歧视吧...?),etc.
Finally, in terms of working shifts, in addition to the length of the shifts, the way one day is break down into shifts, and how they are assigned to the employees, can also affect the alert level of the employees. Compare to them, the length of shifts can even be a less important factor.
Other possibilities: Some people prefer to work in early morning/afternoon/evening, and make more mistakes when working at another time.
In conclusion, for each step of the logic chain, there can be other alternative explanations, thus without first ruling out other explanations the argument may not hold true, and the solution it proposed may not make a difference in decreasing the accident at the new factory.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
Argument 105
The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of Butler Manufacturing.
"During the past year, workers at Butler Manufacturing reported 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. A recent government study reports that fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents. If we shorten each of our work shifts by one hour, we can improve Butler Manufacturing's safety record by ensuring that our employees are adequately rested."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
This paragraph argues that the 30 percent more on-the-job accidents of Butler Manufacturing (BM) than Panoply Industries (PI) is because of the one hour longer working shifts of BM, since fatigue and sleep deprivation were shown to be significant factors causing on the job accidents. The argument believes that by shortening the working shifts of BM by one hour, it can be ensured that BM employees sleep enough and the accidents at BM will be decreased. However, more evidence is needed to support the argument. Firstly, we need evidence to show that BM and PI are similar factories so it is reasonable to compare their numbers of one-the-job accidents. Second, evidence is needed to show that it is fatigue and sleep deprivation, but not other factors, that result in the higher number of accidents at BM. Third, we need evidence showing that employees will use the extra hour to sleep and thus reduce fatigue and sleep deprivation in working hours.
To begin with, we need to know that it is a reasonable comparison between the numbers of on the job accidents of the two factories, so we need evidence to show that they are similar in types of produces, producing procedure, size, numbers of employees, etc.
In addition, to show that fatigue and sleep deprivation are the reasons of higher numbers of accidents at BM, we need evidence to rule out other alternative explanations. (Other possibilities can be better employee training and precautions of PI etc.)
Finally, to prove that the solution offered by the argument will be effective, we need evidence supporting the assumption that the one hour shortening of working shifts will be used to reduce fatigue and sleep deprivation. (Other possibilities can be employees do not sleep more, or this one other is not long enough to make a difference, assignments of working shifts, etc.)
In conclusion...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Issue 106
The following appeared in a memo from the Board of Directors of Butler Manufacturing.
"During the past year, workers at Butler Manufacturing reported 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. A recent government study reports that fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents. Therefore, we recommend that Butler Manufacturing shorten each of its work shifts by one hour. Shorter shifts will allow Butler to improve its safety record by ensuring that its employees are adequately rested."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
This paragraph argues stated that the number of on-the-job accidents of Butler Manufacturing (BM) is 30 percent more than that of Panoply Industries (PI), since the working shifts of BM are one hour longer than those of PI. Because experts identified fatigue caused by sleep deprivation are among the most significant reasons of such accidents, to reduce accidents BM need shorten their working shifts by one hour to ensure adequate amounts of sleep of its workers. However, a few questions need to be asked before we get to the conclusion and solution. Firstly, we need to ask if it is reasonable to compare the number of accidents of the two factories. The second question to be answered is if fatigue caused by sleep deprivation is the reason for the higher numbers of accidents at BM. The third question would be if shortening the working shifts can avoid fatigue and reduce the number of accidents at BM.
To begin with, we to ask if the two factories are similar enough so the comparison between their numbers of on-the-job accidents is reasonable.
Other possibilities: The answer will be no if there are other explanations like ... If not, the recommendation would not be helpful since … (BM工厂更大工人更多或者本就从事事故率更高的产业)
Furthermore, it need to be answered if fatigue and sleep deprivation are the real reason of the higher numbers of accidents at AM.
Other possibilities: worse employee training etc. If the real reason is not fatigue caused by sleep deprivation, the recommendation would make no difference since it is not working on the problem of BM.
Finally, the question is if shortening the working shifts can avoid fatigue caused by sleep deprivation and reduce the number of accidents.
Other possibilities: the answer would be no if the length of shifts is not the reason (but the break-down or assignments), or when employees do not sleep more with the extra hour, etc.
In conclusion...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Issue 167
The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many accidents is fatigue caused by sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta, we recommend shortening each of our three work shifts by one hour. If we do this, our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
This paragraph argues stated that the number of on-the-job accidents of Alta Manufacturing (AM) is 30 percent more than that of Panoply Industries (PI), since the working shifts of AM are one hour longer than those of PI. Because experts identified fatigue caused by sleep deprivation are among the most significant reasons of such accidents, to reduce accidents AM need shorten their working shifts by one hour to ensure adequate amounts of sleep of its workers. However, a few questions need to be asked before we get to the conclusion and solution. Firstly, we need to ask if it is reasonable to compare the number of accidents of the two factories. The second question to be answered is if fatigue caused by sleep deprivation is the reason for the higher numbers of accidents at AM. The third question would be if shortening the working shifts can avoid fatigue and reduce the number of accidents at AM.
To begin with, we to ask if it is reasonable to compare the numbers of on-the-job accidents of AM and PI to decide that PI has fewer accidents and is a better place to work at.
Other possibilities: The answer will be no if there are other explanations like ... The comparison makes little sense if some other critical factors of accidents are also different at these two factories.
Furthermore, it need to be answered what is the real reason of the higher numbers of accidents at AM.
Other possibilities: worse employee training etc. If the real reason is not fatigue caused by sleep deprivation, the argument does not hold true.
Finally, the question is if shortening the working shifts can avoid fatigue caused by sleep deprivation and reduce the number of accidents.
Other possibilities: the answer would be no if the length of shifts is not the reason (but the break-down or assignments), when employees do not sleep more with the extra hour, etc. Thus the argument would not hold true.
In conclusion... |
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发表于 2015-5-25 08:53:37
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