8月7日 argument提纲众包审核

dingchenchenUID: 3602968

argument 6  deer population drop

Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions.
They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year.
Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.
Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining.
Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

老师的提纲：

P1: more evidence about the accuracy of the hunters’ reports
- whether the hunters had scared away the deer with their guns
- whether the hunters had visited the area in a particular point in time when the deer were less active
- how many hunters had reported the deer population; the number was small- less reliable

P2: more evidence about the sea ice in arctic region  
- whether the sea ice in arctic region had melted (global warming trend does not mean local warming)
- whether more food was available near the habitat due to the climate change (then no need to travel)  

P3: evidence that may provide other explanations for the decline of deer population
- any pollution that may threaten the deer population
- overhunting  

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
下面是我对老师提纲的一些想法：
对于P1：
我的理解是hunters的报告不可靠，即不足以说明deer减少了，因此我觉得第一个“whether the hunters had scared away the deer with their guns ”反驳报告的可靠性不太充分。后面两个更有力地说明报告不可靠。

对于P2：
“more evidence about the sea ice in arctic region  ”是不是改为“more evidence about the living environment of deers in arctic region”要好一些？因为后面说ice和food会更衔接一些？

以上就是我的一些看法，不知对不对……


感想：

对于找argument的evidence的切入点我还是有些生。
看了老师的一些提纲，觉得还是要把题干中的data都找出来，然后分析。还有就是evidence的点不能太细。比如，如果把一个evidence说成是“more evidence about the plants that deers feed on”这样写就不太好，一个原因是不太好展开。但是像老师提纲里P2里那样写evidence就比较好，包含的点比较多，容易展开。

tesolchinaUID: 2191404

牛奔奔 发表于 2015-8-7 20:23
老师我对这里的第三个evidence，有点不一样的看法，说得不对请老师多多包涵！

how sensitive are the  ...

double charge看上去会增加不回收的成本 因此回收会增加 这个是原题作者的推理
我们要质疑他就要提出另一种可能 也就是原来的charge就很低 double之后仍然很低 也就是边际上增加的成本并不足以激励人们去回收  因为回收本身是有隐形成本的 是一件需要花时间的很麻烦的事情 如果double后的charge不够高的话 经济宽裕一些的住户就未必愿意回收了  

毉易-牧羊人UID: 3458186

占楼~周末来恶补

argument 63 博客469楼

18. argument 63
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily newspaper.

"Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league sports, over 40,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league soccer players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure exerted by coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

以下是自己的分析：

conclusion：we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine；

支持conclusion的premise 1： more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league sports, over 40,000 of these young players suffered injuries；

premise 2：recent study shows that youth-league soccer players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure exerted by coaches and parents to win games；

premise3：education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities；

premise4： Since the disadvantages outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine

以下是自己分析的作者的assumption：

assumption1： 40,000 of these young players occupy a big percent of all the young players and those injuries were caused in the athletic competition rather than other activities;

assumption2: psychological pressure could lead to physical injuries and the study was well organized and the results were accurate; what's more, the author also assumed that the others cities were similar enough to compare with the city of Parkville; psychological pressure was the result of   athletic competition;

assumption3: students who taking time to long practice sessions for sports could not study well; the long practice sessions were responsible for the injuries of the athletic competition;

assumption4：the reasons above are sufficient to conceal the athletic competition;

以下是王老师的assumption：

assumption 1: the injuries are severe enough to justify discontinuing  
- perhaps many of the injury cases are minor
- maybe better training and supervision could reduce the number of injuries
- perhaps the injury rate is not very high compared to other activities
对比后发现，我assumption 1 的第一点只能匹配到王老师的第三小点内容；没有考虑到这些injuries的严重程度和这些injuries是如此之严重，以至于要取消athletic competition；


assumption 2: the injured players are evenly distributed across age groups and sport categories
- maybe players of certain age groups are more vulnerable to injury (attention should be focused on such age group; not to discontinue players of all ages under 9)
- perhaps players of certain sports are more likely to get injured
对比后发现我没有考虑到argument的一个细节，即injuries 是在各个sports例都有，并且在9岁以下的年龄组里平均分配；这点确实值得学的，说明看的不仔细；

assumption 3: the interview studies could represent all the youth league players and the pressure is necessarily bad
- only a dozen of players are interviewed (are they randomly selected from all the players)
- can soccer players’s experience represent players of other sports
- pressure could be useful
对比后发现我assumption第二点部分能对应上王老师这里的第三点，即这些压力可能对于children并不完全都是坏事；没有考虑到interview的代表性问题；我只分析了这个study是否正确的被调查，当然也可能会涉及这个interview所采访的responders, 他们的代表性究竟怎样，是不是调查的全是9岁以下的，并且年龄平均分布了？并且这个study假定soccer players能代表所有players，这是以偏概全的错误；这点确实没有考虑到；

assumption 4: all players practice for long sessions that only influence academic activities negatively
- maybe many players do not practice very long sessions
- perhaps the exercises can improve the health and the learning efficiency
- the competitive spirit could motivate the students to study harder
对比后发现：我的第三点assumption能勉强匹配上王老师的第二小点，即这些exercise对于学生并不完全都是disadvantages；但是我应该还要考虑以下，也许这些athletic competition对于培养学生也是有益的，比如培养他们刻苦学习和创新；我没有考虑到这些players 的exercise 时间的不均一性；并且这种exercise只会影响children的学习；
还有一点，就是其实这些exercise可能对于children的身体发展更为有利，是advantages outweigh disadvantages.

综上，发现自己对于argument的眼光还不够犀利，思考问题不够深刻和有逻辑性。

covan834UID: 3580369

appreciate it

毉易-牧羊人UID: 3458186

18. argument 63
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily newspaper.

"Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league sports, over 40,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league soccer players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure exerted by coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

以下是自己的分析：

conclusion：we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine；

支持conclusion的premise 1： more and more children below the age of nine participated in youth-league sports, over 40,000 of these young players suffered injuries；

premise 2：recent study shows that youth-league soccer players in several major cities also reported psychological pressure exerted by coaches and parents to win games；

premise3：education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities；

premise4： Since the disadvantages outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children under nine

以下是自己分析的作者的assumption：

assumption1： 40,000 of these young players occupy a big percent of all the young players and those injuries were caused in the athletic competition rather than other activities;

assumption2: psychological pressure could lead to physical injuries and the study was well organized and the results were accurate; what's more, the author also assumed that the others cities were similar enough to compare with the city of Parkville; psychological pressure was the result of   athletic competition;

assumption3: students who taking time to long practice sessions for sports could not study well; the long practice sessions were responsible for the injuries of the athletic competition;

assumption4：the reasons above are sufficient to conceal the athletic competition;

以下是王老师的assumption：

assumption 1: the injuries are severe enough to justify discontinuing  
- perhaps many of the injury cases are minor
- maybe better training and supervision could reduce the number of injuries
- perhaps the injury rate is not very high compared to other activities
对比后发现，我assumption 1 的第一点只能匹配到王老师的第三小点内容；没有考虑到这些injuries的严重程度和这些injuries是如此之严重，以至于要取消athletic competition；


assumption 2: the injured players are evenly distributed across age groups and sport categories
- maybe players of certain age groups are more vulnerable to injury (attention should be focused on such age group; not to discontinue players of all ages under 9)
- perhaps players of certain sports are more likely to get injured
对比后发现我没有考虑到argument的一个细节，即injuries 是在各个sports里都有，并且在9岁以下的年龄组里平均分配；这点确实值得学的，说明看的不仔细；

assumption 3: the interview studies could represent all the youth league players and the pressure is necessarily bad
- only a dozen of players are interviewed (are they randomly selected from all the players)
- can soccer players’s experience represent players of other sports
- pressure could be useful
对比后发现我assumption第二点部分能对应上王老师这里的第三点，即这些压力可能对于children并不完全都是坏事；没有考虑到interview的代表性问题；我只分析了这个study是否正确的被调查，当然也可能会涉及这个interview所采访的responders, 他们的代表性究竟怎样，是不是调查的全是9岁以下的，并且年龄平均分布了？并且这个study假定soccer players能代表所有players，这是以偏概全的错误；这点确实没有考虑到；

assumption 4: all players practice for long sessions that only influence academic activities negatively
- maybe many players do not practice very long sessions
- perhaps the exercises can improve the health and the learning efficiency
- the competitive spirit could motivate the students to study harder
对比后发现：我的第三点assumption能勉强匹配上王老师的第二小点，即这些exercise对于学生并不完全都是disadvantages；但是我应该还要考虑以下，也许这些athletic competition对于培养学生也是有益的，比如培养他们刻苦学习和创新；我没有考虑到这些players 的exercise 时间的不均一性；并且这种exercise只会影响children的学习；
还有一点，就是其实这些exercise可能对于children的身体发展更为有利，是advantages outweigh disadvantages.

综上，发现自己对于argument的眼光还不够犀利，思考问题不够深刻和有逻辑性。