Argument 9 例文

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Argument 9/88/90,
Arg 9 predicted success of new franchise of health food

9) Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products, is opening its next franchise in the town of Plainsville. The store should prove to be very successful: Nature's Way franchises tend to be most profitable in areas where residents lead healthy lives, and clearly Plainsville is such an area. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. Finally, Plainsville's schoolchildren represent a new generation of potential customers: these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

88) The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Health Naturally, a small but expanding chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

Our previous experience has been that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build one of our new stores in Plainsville, which clearly has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise equipment are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight-training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a program called Fitness for Life, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

90) The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Health Naturally, a small but expanding chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

Our previous experience has been that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build one of our new stores in Plainsville, which clearly has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise equipment are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight-training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a program called Fitness for Life, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.




C1: Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products, is opening its next franchise in the town of Plainsville. The store should prove to be very successful:


G1: Nature's Way franchises tend to be most profitable in areas where residents lead healthy lives,

C2: and clearly Plainsville is such an area.


G2: Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs.


G3: The local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full.


G4: Finally, Plainsville's schoolchildren represent a new generation of potential customers: these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.


A1 (G2, C2): The strong sales records necessarily mean that residents here lead healthy lives.

A2 (G3, C2): The number of members in the health club and the full enrolment of the classes suggest that the residents lead healthy lives.

A3 (G4, C2): The children will lead healthy lives in town when they grow up.

A4 (C2, C1): The healthy lifestyles are the main reason why the stores were profitable in other areas.


model essay


The author predicts that the new franchise in Plainsville will be successful based on the fact that the residents here have bought many running shoes and exercise clothing, signed up for health club memberships and that schoolchildren are required to join a health-related program. A number of assumptions about these facts have been made and need to be examined critically to decide if the prediction is reasonable.

It is first assumed that the strong sale of running shoes and exercise garment necessarily means that the residents in the area are living a healthy life. There are different alternative explanations for the strong sale. For example, there might be an influx of tourists to Painsville who are responsible for buying the running shoes and exercise garments. In addition, the residents might have bought the shoes and clothing as Christmas gifts for their relatives and friends in other cities. Even they bought the goods for themselves, they may not have the time and willpower to wear these shoes and clothes to exercise. Unless more evidence is available to suggest that the residents have actually exercised their bodies with these shoes and clothes, the assumptions made here do not hold.

The high membership of the health club and the full enrollment of the classes do not necessarily support the claim that the local residents live healthy life, either. It is one thing to pay for the health club memberships. It is quite another for the residents to actually show up for the health club activities regularly. The members may be too busy to actually pariticipate in the club despite their payment for membership. Likewise, residents enrolled in those classes may not show up in all the classes when other commitments such as dating or parenting took away their time and energy. In addition, we do not know how big the health club and the classes are relative to the population size of Painsville. If the club and class sizes are relatively small, the membership and enrollment cannot accurately reflect the overall lifestyle of Painsville residents.

It is further assumed that the children in Painsville, after the mandatory school program, will lead a healthy life and become potential customers for the franchise. It is not clear how the children and their parents would respond to such a program. Maybe due to its compulsory nature, the children do not enjoy the program and could not internalize the idea of exercising regularly. Also, the program may not last due to the opposition of the parents. Moreover, even if the children learn to live a healthy life through such a program, they may leave the town for colleges or jobs by the time they reach the age of buying the products from the franchise. Therefore, it may not be realistic to expect the children to become customers for the franchise in future.

Lastly, an implicit assumption being made in the argument is that the franchise will succeed in the competition against other similar products and the other substitute services such as sportswear and health care membership. Maybe in Painsville there is already a company selling health products similar to what the franchise has to offer. Also, maybe the Painsville residents do not need the products from the franchise after being active in the health clubs or having their children involved in the health program at schools. If the franchise could not attract the customers who have already had access to these health-related goods and services, it will not be very successful in Plainsville.

Overall speaking, it is important to collect more evidence to evaluate the assumptions discussed above in order to decide if the prediction about the franchises success is reasonable.





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