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ARGUMENT 147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months." WORDS:578
In this editorial, the author concludes that the sales of Whirlwind's video games will increase dramatically in the next few months by introducting lifelike video game. To support this conclusion, the author points out that they have advertising campaign directed at 10 to 25 year old people. The author also cites a recent survey that suggested player of lifelike graghic games. Close scrutiny of this evidence reveals that it lends little supports to the argument.
A threshold problem with the argument involves the recent survey cited by the author to suppot that the sales of Whirlwind video game wil be reversed. However, the author provides no evidence that the survey 's sample is sufficiently significant and representative of the overall population of consumers who play Whirlwind's video game. Laking such evidence as the randomness an the size of the survey's sample the author cannot convince me by adopting the players' suggestion, Whirlwindcould improve the sales of its video games.
Even if the subjected players' suggestion could representative of the shortage of Whirlwind's video game, the author's relicance on the result of the survey that lifelike video game can attract more video game consumers and persuade them to buy Whirlwind's products is still unwarranted in two respects. First, playing such a highly emulational game requires the most up-to-date computers, which limits the number of its consumers. It is entirely possible thta they donot have such a superior computer or even some of them, at least, are unwilling to spend more money on upgrading their computers to meet the requirements of such a video game.
Another problem with the argument involve Whirlwind's advertising camplaign directed at groups of aged 10 to 25. The author assumes that the introduction of lifelike video game will, as a result, promote the sales of such games amony Whirlwind's consumers. Yet, this might not be the case, unless the author can provide clear evidence that this group of people are statistically representative fo the consumers of such video games in general i cannot accept the author's assertion that the advertising campaign directed at them would no doubt increase the sales of these video games.
Finally, the author's conclusion merely based on the suvey and Whirlwind's advertising camplaign is statistically unconvincing in two respects that 1) the author fails to account for other factors that might certainly lead to the decline of Whirlwind's video games, for instance, the inlation of such video game at nationwide, or the author overlooks many of other possible factors which contribues to Whirlwind's video games, such as the charater design, background music, detailed story line and so on. Without considering and ruling out such possible factors that might affect the sales of video game, the author cannot persuade me that Whirlwind's sale will be improved---let alone they can be profitable from these games.
In sum, this argument is unconvincing in several critical respects as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must provide calear evidence that Whirlwind's game players have so advanced comprters that meet the requirement of playing such a high emulational game, and that the group of people aged at 10 to 25 is sufficient representative of Whirlwind's consumers in general and the advertising camplaign will certainly be sucessul. To better assess the argument i would need to know that the improvement of graphic of the game would, of course, ensurethe improvement of the overalll quality of it without considering other factor. i would also need to compare the price of such game to that of Whirlwind's competitor' to determine that it will surely be profitable after being on the market
因为时间不够,所以最后一句话没写,是补上去的。请大家多多指教。 |
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