Argument73 绞尽脑汁褪掉XDF的味道,无奈还是...

微末三月UID: 205072

Topic:The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.
"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."

outline:
1.租赁车的未来无法保证,现在的增加可能只是暂时的
2.大多数人会开租赁车未证实
3.销售车的利润远大于租赁车.


argument:
In this memo, the manager asserts that they should focus their business on car leasing instead of selling because of the flourish of car leasing in last five years. However, this conclusion relies on a serious of problematic assumptions and therefore inconvincible as it stands.

To begin with, the argument lack validated evidence to support that car leasing will keep the trend of increase and surpass the selling cars in the future years. The manager concludes that because people would rather lease new cars than buy in each of the last five years. Yet this increase of car leasing cannot indicate people will appreciate leasing cars as the same as nowadays in the coming years. Perhaps with the development of economy and the increase of people’s income, or with the improvement in car manufacturing, car buying will resuscitate from the lower level. In additional, this increase entirely might be a transient phenomenon. For example, during the traveling midseason, short-term visitors might prefer to car leasing for it is more convenient and economical. Similarly, contingent commercial activities will result in the same status. And the conditions of the leasing cars might largely decline because their sixth year of average age is coming. In that case, without further information, it is imprudent to draw any conclusion about the car leasing aftertime.

Furthermore, the manager fails to provide sufficient evidence to confirm that a majority of drivers will be driving leased car even if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year. It is true that leasing has steadily risen in popularity in recent years. However, car’s purchase began since the first manufactured car invented by Karl Benz appeared in 1886 and it had spread to the whole world with a rapid speed. Now there are numerous car-making factories such as Ford, Benz, and BMW and so on, some of which had been constructed about 120 years. Relatively speaking, car leasing just has become available in Mohilia for ten years. Maybe it is an unavailable item in any other country now. Based on these blurry data, we cannot elicit the summation of leasing car will outnumber that of individually owned cars.

Finally, even if we accept that the number of leasing cars has surpassed the number of buying cars, to obtain more profit as a manager, he ignores a very important factor about the profit, that is, retained profit on each. It is obvious that retained profit of one selling car will be head and shoulders above that on one leasing car. Associated with these two ingredients, the gross profit is the product of the retained profit and the number of leasing cars or buying cars. Without considering this crucial factor, the conclusion that majority of drivers will use leased cars other than individually owned is open to unwarranted.

In sum, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid. To better assess, the manager should provide us detailed information that rising tendency of leasing car will be maintained in the future and bring us more profit.