Tought Break (再战200610G) 提纲 提交贴

munickyUID: 2122843

Issue 121

1  Addmittedly, the executive of a cooperate must strive on to make as much money as he could for it is his main responsibility.
2  However, if executives just know to make money,even though they stay within the law, it may also be deleterious to both the cooperate and society,for example, some inappropreate competetion.
3  A good executive should concern both the company and the society.

Argu 208

1  the willing of people and new energy-efficient appliance do not mean energy reducing necessarily.
2  other ways that exhaust electricity would also be possible to raise the energy needed rather than heating .
3  the author assumes that the situation during the past 20 years would still be the same in the future.  Issue 121

AnddieUID: 2135826

214."Society should identify those children who have special talents and abilities and begin training them at an early age so that they can eventually excel in their areas of ability. Otherwise, these talents are likely to remain undeveloped."

观点：反对
提纲：
1。特殊的教育可以帮助人开发talents（肖邦，维纳）
2。即使没有特殊的教育一个人的天赋也是可以开发出来的（陈景润）
3。过分过早的开发反而会破坏他的创造力和天赋（神童，过早教育的失败）


125The following is a recommendation from the president of Appleby College.

"Whereas Appleby College holds class reunions every five years, Edelston College holds annual reunions for all classes, during which Edelston's alumni are treated to banquets, lectures, and student performances, enhancing their loyalty to the college and their willingness to donate money. Edelston College receives most of its alumni donations during or shortly after these reunions. Therefore, the best way for Appleby to increase its alumni donations is to offer similar reunion activities and to have each graduating class hold annual reunions."

1.Edelston是否是因为聚会才得到捐款。时间上的先后不等于具有因果关系。
2.Appleby举行聚会是否能够取得类似的效果。很可能Edelston是商学院，校友有钱从而得到的捐款多。Appleby的校友很可能没那么有钱。同时捐款的数量也未知，很可能Appleby得到的捐款已经超过Edelston很多了，从而聚会的效果会不明显。

licheewu28UID: 2131182

214. "Society should identify those children who have special talents and abilities and begin training them at an early age so that they can eventually excel in their areas of ability. Otherwise, these talents are likely to remain undeveloped."

社会应该发现那些具有特殊天赋和能力的孩子，并且在年幼的时候就开始训练他们以便于这些孩子最终可以在他们擅长的领域中出类拔萃。否则这些天才就可能会止步不前。
Strategies
1.过于片面，有保留的赞同。社会教育的目的
2.社会应该关注孩子的成长，善于发现孩子的天赋和能力，为孩子的成长创造良好的环境
3.社会在追求塑造天才的同时，应尊重孩子成长规律，不能急于求成，对孩子施加过度的压力。
4.社会在塑造天才同时，必须注重社会整体的发展，不能以牺牲大部分其他孩子的成长为代价而追求个体的出类拔萃。

125. class reunions,Appleby College 论断：
1.无据前提：A校的校友捐赠比E的少。尽管A的校友聚会频率没有E高，如果A一次聚会收到的捐赠比E五次聚会收到的总数还多，那么A由五年一次改为没年一次的聚会就没有什么意义了。论者应该提供两校各自收到的捐赠数额对比，否则无法确信每年一次聚会将为A带来更多捐赠。
2.错误类比：适合E的不一定适合A。即使E确实收到比A高的捐赠，每年一次校友聚会不一定保证E能收到更多的捐赠。因为A和E存在差异，可能A培养更多的是文化人，而E如果是商校，多数校友经商，赚更多的钱，能捐更多的款。而且每年一次的话，校友是否都能参加，如果校友很分散，聚会就很难保证收到可观的捐赠。
3.忽略问题：既然每年举行一次聚会，准备聚会的资金就会提高。如果聚会的投资高出收到的捐赠，或投资资金增长的幅度大于捐赠增长的幅度，那么高频率的聚会也就没实际意义了。
4.更何况，学校必须考虑声誉问题，以提高捐赠为目的的聚会会破坏学校名誉

licheewu28UID: 2131182

190. "As long as people in a society are hungry or out of work or lack the basic skills needed to survive, the use of public resources to support the arts is inappropriate--and, perhaps, even cruel--when one considers all the potential uses of such money."
一旦人们陷于饥饿、失业或者缺乏谋生的基本技能，运用公共资源去扶持艺术是很不恰当的----并且甚至是残忍的----尤其明知这些资金所有可能的用途。
Strategies
1.The statement is not well established in that it regards human material life as contradictory to artistic life.
2.Admittedly, material needs are essential to human beings.马斯洛层次理论
3.However, arts develop with the birth of humankind. Early in the prehistorical eras, there were all kinds of art works like      
4.Furthermore, people benefit from development of arts instead of suffering from it. Whether from its actual function or its basic and ultimate objection, arts do good to human life.


200. three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist 论断：
Strategies:
1.无据前提：并不能保证有牙病的男病人比女病人多。
2.调查类错误：统计数据没有具体说明男女病人各自总数，如果男病人总数多于女病人，“three times”也就没有意义了；
3.“distressed” 和牙病的严重程度，以及与病人的心理紧张程度no correlation，可能男病人的牙问题比女病人的严重；或者女病人虽然紧张，但不表现为distressed，而是其他表现，如心理上不适，不愿意去看牙医。
4.牙医对病人的敏感度并不等于牙医技术好。

czjsimonUID: 2215612

分析：结论是在西南地区用人造黄油代替黄油的经验可以推广到东北和东南的餐馆。这里的一个重要前提是西南的餐馆改用人造黄油以后，没有造成顾客的流失和营业收入的下降，但是这里的论据并没有说明这一点。只有2%的顾客抱怨，不代表其他顾客就是满意，他们也许只是不说，但是以后就不会光顾。服务生提供的报告也有问题，没有抱怨也不能直接推出他们辨别不出，更何况，这只是一部分的报告，也许有问题的情况并没有得到报告。即使该前提成立，也无法直接就推广到各地，因为不同地区的顾客的偏好也许存在较大的差异。

1. 这个argu提供的证据不能说明西南的餐馆改用人造黄油以后，没有造成顾客的流失和营业收入的下降。
2. 即使该前提成立，也不能直接推出可以推广到各地。

licheewu28UID: 2131182

138. "Only through mistakes can there be discovery or progress."
失败是成功之母
Partly agree
1.失败和成功存在辨证关系，词义上对立；相互之间会转换，对成功沾沾自喜不思进取将导致失败，而对失败反思，吸取经验，奋发图强，将反败为胜。
2.所以一定程度上可以说there can be discovery or progress through mistakes. 一些例子
3.但是题中所述过于觉得，“ONLY”是指每个成功之前总有过失败，这并不见得。

182. Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who still ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish margarine from butter, or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.
1.草率等同：论断把2%的抱怨完全等同于98%的满意是不合理且毫无根据的论证。有的人心里不满但没有表示出来，只是下次不再过来消费。
2.服务员的报道并不可靠，顾客的不满很多可能是他们无法了解的，有的是他们没听到，有的是顾客表面没有说出来，心理不满而不再光顾。
3.个体——整体：H饭店的个别情况不代表所有经营区都是同样的情况，不同地区的人们口味喜好有差别。况且论者忽略了一个地方的成本并不代表所有地方都是一样的成本。

mercury_tol24UID: 2172005

issue 138
1 要想取得重大突破与进展，是不可能一点错误都不犯的
2 许多重大科学发现就是在多次犯错、多次改错的基础上取得的
3 人类发展史就是一部后人不断从前人错误中学习的历史

argument 182
1 The mere fact that only about 2 percent of customers have complained is
insufficient to conclude that most of the customers who come to the
restaurant are happy with the change.

2 The report from the server that customers who still ask for butter do
not complain about the given margarine is not reliable to prove that
customers do not care whether they eat food with butter or margarine.

3 Even though the two assumption above were demonstrated, there is no
evidence to show that the application of this cost-saving change in
southeast and northeast would succeed just as that in southwest.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

Issue 196 "Technology creates more problems than it solves, and may threaten or damage the quality of life."  
技术解决了问题，但是带来了更多的问题，并且可能会威胁或损害生活质量。

strategies:

1.Admittedly, technology is advantageous in solving a myriad of problems and makes human life convenient. Human life span is prolonged, working hours are shortened, trans-national communications become frequent.

2.But the cost to pay such optimistic benefits cannot be ignored as technology brings many other further issues. Automation liberates man labor but leads to serious unemployment, mechanical factories provides abundant goods but produce environmental pollution, computers complete countless operation in soaring accuracy but bear high-tech criminals.

3.Humankind should not be pessimistic over the dilemma given by technology, because the later is manufactured and invented by the former in the purpose of working for man. We should utilize it appropriately and effectively.

Argu65
strategies:

1.Unpersuasive evidence: being best-selling does not mean most profits; False analogy/scope fallacy—cheeses from W cannot represent all of the nationwide cheeses

2.Surveying fallacy: whether the surveyor is competent, how many interviewees and respondents. What the percentage of subscribers is in the nationwide consumers; their preference cannot be regarded as their consuming actions.

3.Profits come from the gap of cost and revenue. It is not assured that cost will overweigh revenue.

4.Other ways to improve profits.

[ 本帖最后由 licheewu28 于 2006-7-25 14:28 编辑 ]

licheewu28UID: 2131182

88. "Technologies not only influence but actually determine social customs and ethics."  
技术不仅仅影响而且实际上是决定了社会传统和道德规范。

1.Technologies have drastically changed our living way, providing a myriad of new-typed tools and entertaining means.
2.The tradition and customs take on a new look far different from what they appeared without no technological support, and accordingly, people’s mind is renewed.
3.However, technologies should not allowed to dominate human life and mind, otherwise, the society will wade in chaos.

20.Balmer Island,moped 结论
1.The prerequisite: whether the measure is necessary to B. There is no material about the accidents
2.Whether the rental mopeds and bicycles are responsible to the accidents.
3.It is not assured that the number of daily rental mopeds and bicycles in B is over 30.
4.False analogy: T’s measure is not necessarily effective to B as firstly, T’s accidents could be more than B’s after the measure, secondly, it could be other measures that bring T’s accidents to decrease, and thirdly even if so, B is in different situation from T.

mercury_tol24UID: 2172005

issue 130
"How children are socialized today determines the destiny of society. Unfortunately, we have not yet learned how to raise children who can help bring about a better society."

提纲：
The speaker claims that it is socialization of children that decides the destiny of society, but but until now we have not got an effective method to teach our children how to promote a better society. Although this statement tends to disappoint people to some extent, I fundamentally agree with the opinion of the speaker on the ground that though fulfillment of children's socialization is definitely of great significance for a society's future, it is difficult for us to find the exactly correct way to adapt our children to the society's demands without any deviation, due to more and more rapid changing pace of the world and some uncontroled factors which have a bad effect in education.

1 Admittedly, the destiny of a society depends greatly on the extent of socialization of its chidren and thus the construction of a better future calls for an education that can satisfy the needs of society well.
2 Nonetheless, the changing pace of a society is so rapid that any effort to predict exactly what the society needs in the future is infructuous/fruitless.
3 Moreover, education can never be perfectly accomplished in that different kinds of external influence can have an effect on the development of children.     

arg 56:
Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how the Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues. This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could only be used for life-size sculptures. It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found. In light of this development, collectors should expect the life-size sculptures to decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value.

提纲:
1 the mere fact that molds of human heads and hands are discoveried recently on Kali, is insufficient to prove that ancient Kalinese indeed use the molds to produce the life-size clay statues.
2 there is not enough evidence to show that miniature statues are totally different from the lifesize ones in style.
3 without more statistics about the value of both kind of statues in the market, it can not be simply concluded that the reduction of lifesize statues' value can be expected as well as the rising value of miniatures.

licheewu28UID: 2131182

160. "The most essential quality of an effective leader is the ability to remain consistently committed to particular principles and objectives. Any leader who is quickly and easily influenced by shifts in popular opinion will accomplish little."  
对于一位强有力的领导者来说，最关键的能力就是要对一些原则和目标坚定不移。任何领导如果很频繁的、很轻易的为大众意志而转移的话，他将会一事无成。

strategy:
To be an effective leader in any field, it is the prerequisite to insist on specific principles and objectives. However, such a commitment does not mean being stubborn or overbearing under any circumstance, instead, to be competent, leaders should no less flexible among the mass to achieve goals based on the principles and objectives.
1.On one hand, efficient leadership is generated on the basis of particular principles and objectives.
2. However, on the other hand, tyrannical mind barriers successful leading while sensitive and intellectual wiseness bring achievements to leadership.
大家还有什么新主张吗？我就想到这么些

45.Arctic deer 论断：
1.Hasty conclusion: the author provides no supportive evidence that the arctic deer population is declining, though there are reports from local hunters, which are actually incredible owing to the link between hunters’ activities and those of the deer.
2.Whether the temperature change leads to the decrease of the deer population remains unsure. The global warming trends do not mean the tendency on islands in Canada arctic region---the fallacy of lessened scope. The concurrence of temperature declining and deer population decreasing does not mean that there is causal relationship between them.
3.Other causes, like over-hunting, dearth of food, might be responsible if the deer population does diminish

licheewu28UID: 2131182

103. "The study of history has value only to the extent that it is relevant to our daily lives." 只有研究和我们日常生活相关的历史才有价值。

6G前写过，按上次写的提纲

1.The past knowledge and experience, which can be guide of current study of science and art, is valuable to present learning and innovation.
2.Whether success and failure having happened in the history can be a good mirror of managing the country to avoid possible mistakes.
3.History itself is an indispensable part of the national culture, which benefits to enhance individual national identification.
4.As the society is changing and developing, reforms and renovations should be made to promote social progress, after all, what have never occurred will not be definitely unnecessary.

42.ecotourism，Paraterra. 论断

1.The prerequisite: Per capita income in P is lower than in B.
2.Other causes instead of the ecotourism campaign led to the improvement. Other causes attracted visitors to B. False analogy: B is different from P in many aspects.
3.The success of ecotourism was not completely owing to the advertising campaign, and the campaign in B was not fully in the charge of the consultant. The consultant’s ability is unknown. Even if so, the consultant might not perform well in an advertising campaign in P, whose tourist market is different from B.

Enna_garfieldUID: 2180738

7月29 号提纲:
Issue 26: "Most people would agree that buildings represent a valuable record of any society's past, but controversy arises when old buildings stand on ground that modern planners feel could be better used for modern purposes. In such situations, modern development should be given precedence over the preservation of historic buildings so that contemporary needs can be served."
大多数人都同意一个社会的建筑物代表了它有价值的历史纪录，但是当现代规划者们觉得这些以前的建筑物所占据的土地可以被更有价值的使用于新目的时，就产生了争议，现代发展应该比保留历史建筑物更受重视以便于满足眼下的需求。
过去和现在之建筑物
Standpoint: oppose with reservation
Beginning: Whether tearing down the old buildings to satisfy current demand or not should be discussed case by case. However, the speaker’s claim runs into an extreme, which can cause alarming consequence if followed carelessly.
Body 1: Traditional constructions of a city not only serve to exhibit as three-dimensional document for ancient age but also are the symbol of culture. Furthermore, the cost of reconstruction of these works after broken is unable to anticipate. Not to mention the inferior quality after been modified.
Body 2: Secondly, the purpose to meet nowadays demand does not necessarily conflict with the effort of preserving old buildings. For example, the fund raised by tourism can be used in making profit and subsidize special need.
Body 3: Nonetheless, it is not mean that advocating the reserve of all antiquate houses without discrimination is ideal method in addressing such problems. People should treat different cases by diversified thoughts.
Conclusion: We should careful analysis every single instance to make the most proper decision.        

Argument 100: The following appeared in a memo from the chief operating officer of the Presto Manufacturing Company.
"Since orders for our major product increased by over 200 percent last quarter, we should promptly expand production by building a new manufacturing plant in Summit City. Summit City is the ideal location for the new plant because it has low property taxes, extensive blocks of land available for immediate purchase, and a large number of residents who are not currently employed."
Logic flaws: 1.over 200 percent increase in order explains little about the need of building a new plant. (What is the basis of 200 percent, one quarter is too short? What about other products, what the condition of extant plant? Is there any other ways to meet the demand other than build a new one)
           2. Summit city’s good qualities cited by the author is weak evidence of the desirable condition of this city. (What about other factors? Are there other cities better than SC? How about the cost and government regulation?)  
ARGU就是今年考的题, 当时就只找出来这两大方面, 觉得比较空, 求教啊~

licheewu28UID: 2131182

ISSUE 26 Most people would agree that buildings represent a valuable record of any society's past, but controversy arises when old buildings stand on the ground that modern planners feel could be better used for modern purposes. In such situations, modern development should be given precedence over the preservation of historic buildings so that contemporary needs can be served."大多数人都同意一个社会的建筑物代表了它有价值的历史纪录，但是当现代规划者们觉得这些以前的建筑物所占据的土地可以被更有价值的使用于新目的时，就产生了争议，现代发展应该比保留历史建筑物更受重视以便于满足眼下的需求。

strategy:
1.On one hand, destroying historic buildings and relics means possible dropping the national history. Even when they are of no practical utilitarian value, they have sighted the national history and contain deep historical significance.
2.Historic buildings are not completely conflicting with modern ones. Those constructions injuring historic ones in the purpose of unfair needs are not only short-sighted but also do harm to economic development.
3.On the other hand, however, not all previous buildings are worth reservation, especially those deserted for long years and with no special features, which should be razed to meet with the contemporary needs.

100.Presto Manufacturing Company increased by over 200 percent 论断：

strategy:
1.It is uncertain whether the present plant could meet with the increased production or not, based on which a new plant should be built up.
2.Summit City is not definitely the ideal location for the new plant, in that low property taxes could be owing to laggard development, available lands could not be suitable for building, and residents to be employed might not be competent for the manufacture. In addition, there are other problems like transportation, energy supply.
3.Other ways to satisfy the new requirements of production

[ 本帖最后由 licheewu28 于 2006-7-31 12:18 编辑 ]

licheewu28UID: 2131182

issue95. "People work more productively in teams than individually. Teamwork requires cooperation, which motivates people much more than individual competition does."
人们在团队中工作比独立工作要更加有效率。团队协作需要的合作能够比个人间的竞争更加激励人们。
strategy:
1.Cooperation is more advantageous in some jobs of business and administrative professions.
2.Comparatively, individual endeavor more benefits making achievements in scientific and arctic fields.
3.Generally, teamwork is preferential in most of occasions as the world become more and more closely connected with one nation with another, an individual with any others.

argu9. Omega University, evaluation 论断

The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
'Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors.'

1.It is unwarranted to assume that Omega professor assigned higher grades to their students fully owing to the students’ evaluation.
2.There is no reliable evidence indicating that potential employees regard the grades at Omega inflated.
3.Termination of the evaluation is insufficient to secure better jobs for Omega students, which might include other factors. Moreover, no available statistics manifests any pessimistic future  for Omega students to hunt for jobs.