Argument218 [smile B] 第10次作业 有拍必回

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Agument218 这篇想了下提纲限时 基本写完了 修改了一些东西还是
The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.
"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."
Outline
1 In the first place, it is a rootless assumption that the action characteristic of toy has lead to the sharply decline of sales.
2 Secondly, even granted that the educational toys are more popular than the action toys at present, there are still not enough evidences indicating that by discontinuing all action toys and focusing only on educational toys would maintain profits of Hyper-go Company.
3 Finally, the report from other manufacturer is too vague to support any tenable allegation.

This argument was presented well but not reasoned well. The customer survey, report of other manufacturer and the average increase of family revenue can not justify the arguer's conclusion that discontinuing all action toys and focusing only on educational toys would maintain profit of Hyper-go Company.

In the first place, it is a rootless assumption that the action characteristic of toy has lead to the sharply decline of sales. Even given the result of the study, it maybe play an only a little role in the sales decrease. It is possible that it is the management problems of the Hyper-go that have contribute to the sharp sales decrease. It is equally possible that there are other strong competitors emerging in the toy market with the similar toys as that of Hyper-go Company, which would also cause some sales decline. Without rule out these factors, we can not be convinced by the arguer's implication that action toys were not popular any more.

Secondly, even granted that the educational toys are more popular than the action toys at present, there are still not enough evidences indicating that by discontinuing all action toys and focusing only on educational toys would maintain profits of Hyper-go Company. It is true that the average family income increases, but there is not specific evidence illustrating parents would spend more for the toys. Also, the arguer neglect the other manufacturers of educational toys in the market, they may be also a threat to the profit of Hyper Company. Before stopping the production of action toys, the arguer should consider the factors mentioned above carefully.

Finally, the report from other manufacturer is too vague to support any tenable allegation. Its sales increase in the last year may be ascribed to other reasons. Its powerful and effective advertisement, for example, may contribute to the sales increase in last year. Further more, if the company is the only producer to produce educational toys in a given region with less competition, its sales would surly increase dramatically at the early years. If so, the arguer should reevaluate the validity of the report.

To sum up, the argument is incredible for both the survey and report from other company can not lend strong support to the conclusion. Before the clear investigation about but not limited to the factors mentioned above was made, the Hyper-go company is not only possible but altogether probable to make a wrong decision.